this post was submitted on 25 Jul 2023
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There’s a difference between wanting an EV and affording one. Most people won’t mind an EV but they are not £5k. What you’ll find is the 2nd hand EV market will also be mature, plus they last hundreds of thousands of miles more than a petrol car ever will. In 2030 they will be cheaper 1st and 2nd hand, so you can pay more for an old petrol if you like. My bet is, the cost will win out and people will just buy an EV.
If they last longer then surely there won't be much of a used market for electric cars in 2030?
You really think people will stop trading in their cars after 3 years to get the latest model ? I sincerely doubt it. Rolling over the lease is built into the finance model (it's not financially smart but that's a different discussion).
No I don't doubt that at all. I just don't think we're going to have used car forecourts packed solid with EV's in 7 years time, let alone them also being affordable to the masses.
EV Percentage of total vehicles sales has been rising each year for the past 10 years. Exact number varies country to country but for most western countries it is now between 10 and 20% of sales per annum (obviously 100% in Norway).
Vehicle fleet turns over about every 15 years in Western nations (give or take depending on country) i.e around 90-95% of cars are less than 15 years old (there will always be very old collectors cars, but that's an entirely different ball game).
So in 7 years time unless EV sales suddenly plummet, at the very least 20% of used cars sales will be EVs. However EV cars are tracking perfectly to S curve of new technology take up (very small number to start then it explodes). So there is every reason to suspect that today's 20% of sales will be significantly higher. In fact it is expected that they will be the vast majority of new sales in most western countries, particularly those like the UK who are banning NEW ICE sales from 2030. Note that's not banning the sale of second hand ICE.
There will therefore be a reasonably large number of second hand EVs, an even larger number of hybrid PHEVs (as a lot of those have been sold over the past 5 years) and there will be an even larger number of very very low cost ICE vehicles as people exit the technology.
People will buy what makes sense for them.