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The first quarter is on track for negative GDP growth, Atlanta Fed indicator says (www.cnbc.com)

submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Summary

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker indicates U.S. GDP may shrink by 1.5% in Q1 2025, reversing from an earlier 2.3% growth estimate.

Weak consumer spending and exports contributed to the downgrade, reflecting broader economic concerns. Inflation-adjusted spending dropped 0.5% in January, and net exports' contribution fell sharply.

Declining consumer confidence, rising jobless claims, and an inverted yield curve signal potential recession risks.

Markets now expect multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025, with an 80% chance of a June reduction, as economic uncertainty weighs on stocks and bonds.

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 months ago

Is net export decline driven by decreased exports, or increased imports to stockpile before tariffs?