this post was submitted on 05 May 2025
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Of course, that has always been true. What concerns me now is the proportion of useful to useless people. Most societies are - while cybernetically complex - rather resilient. Network effects and self-organization can route around and compensate for a lot of damage, but there comes a point where having a few brilliant minds in the midst of a bunch of atavistic confused panicking knuckle-draggers just isn't going to be enough to avoid cascading failure. I'm seeing a lot of positive feedback loops emerging, and I don't like it.
As they say about collapsing systems: First slowly, then suddenly very, very quickly.
Same argument was already made around 2500BCE in Mesopotamian scriptures. The corruption of society will lead to deterioration and collapse, these processes accelerate and will soon lead to the inevitable end; remaining minds write history books and capture the end of humanity.
...and as you can see, we're 4500 years into this stuff, still kicking.
One mistake people of all generations make is assuming the previous ones were smarter and better. No, they weren't, they were as naive if not more so, had same illusions of grandeur and outside influences. This thing never went anywhere and never will. We can shift it to better or worse, but societal collapse due to people suddenly getting dumb is not something to reasonably worry about.
I mean, Mesopotamian scriptures likely didn't foresee having a bunch of dumb fucks around who can be easily manipulated by the gas and oil lobby, and that shit will actually end humanity.
People were always manipulated. I mean, they were indoctrinated with divine power of rulers, how much worse can it get? It's just that now it tries to be a bit more stealthy.
And previously, there were plenty of existential threats. Famine, plague, all that stuff that actually threatened to wipe us out.
We're still here, and we have what it takes to push back. We need more organizing, that's all.
Well, it doesn't have to get worse, AFAIK we are still headed towards human extinction due to Climate Change
Honestly, the "human extinction" level of climate change is very far away. Currently, we're preventing the "sunken coastal cities, economic crisis and famine in poor regions" kind of change, it's just that "we're all gonna die" sounds flashier.
We have the time to change the course, it's just that the sooner we do this, the less damage will be done. This is why it's important to solve it now.
Are we really preventing it? Seems like the track toward that change is mostly unabated. Sure, it's a couple of generations out before it gets serious, but what are the signs that the track has improved?
I'm reading hopeful signs from China that they are actually making positive progress toward sustainability. Not that other big players are keeping up with them, but still how 1 billion people choose to live does make a difference.
Yeah, China is doing rather well in transition to Renewables and Nuclear, though it might be concerning for the future when we will have to buy everything Solar and SMR related from them
The only thing driving solar panel production development to China is cost. Cost of labor, cost of environmental regulations, maybe cost of raw material acquisition... All that investment there for the past 20+ years driven by cost is "paying off" now with their production capacity. We're getting TMSC plants in Arizona, we've already got BMW, Mercedes, Toyota etc. production plants in the US, nothing stopping us from building solar panel factories, except international corporate profit optimization.
In the past our eggs were not all in one basket.
In the past it wasn't possible to fuck up so hard you destroy all of humanity. That's a new one.
With regard to what has been happening the past 100 days in the United States, it's not even trying to be stealthy one little bit. If anything, it's dropping massive hints of the objectionable things it's planning for the near future.
There are still existential threats: https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/
The difference with a population of 8 billion is that we as individuals are less empowered to do anything significant about them than ever.