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AI: At the heart of superforecasting is a simple but transformative idea: the best forecasters treat their beliefs not as sacred truths, but as hypotheses to be tested. In forecasting, where accuracy and adaptability are of paramount importance, superforecasting has demonstrated superior performance. Superforecasting was a watershed moment in a $20 million research tournament led by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to determine whether crowdsourced forecasting methods could provide more accurate forecasts than existing approaches. In forecasting, where accuracy and adaptability are of paramount importance, superforecasting has demonstrated superior results. At the heart of superforecasting is a simple but transformative idea: the best forecasters treat their beliefs not as sacred truths, but as hypotheses to be tested. In forecasting, where accuracy and adaptability are of paramount importance, superforecasting has demonstrated superior performance.