this post was submitted on 27 May 2024
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Ah yes, the famous quote from fourth century Rome. How did that work out for them? I seem to remember a continuous series of wars leading to the utter collapse of western Rome before the end of that century. It also inspired the name of the Parabellum pistol (AKA Lugar) manufactured in Germany for both worlds wars. The quote doesn't have the best track record.
I prefer si vis pacem para pacem.
Rome had the largest army ever assembled at the time. They did more military preparation than any nation in Europe. They had 56 legions of professional soldiers. How many more do you think they would have needed to be considered prepared?
I've never had an issue with my neighbors that could be solved with war. Once I lived next to a guy who was pretty militant, but we got along alright. I hired his son to help mow my lawn. Maybe I'm just not good at getting into disputes.
In a geopolitical sense, it seems to be more about alliances than independent preparation. Nations can prepare for war and still get steamrolled, or prepare for peace and put up a solid resistance. I think a constant paranoia of war is more likely to do harm than conjure safety.
Britain was absolutely not prepared for WW2 but put up a successful resistance. They had spent the decade prior, focusing on disarmament and the League of Nations. The US was not prepared for WW2 either, the attack on Pearl Harbor damaged nearly the entire battle fleet. For a more contemporary example, Ukraine was unprepared for the Russian invasion, but has been putting up more of a fight than anyone expected.
Then what was the point of your hypothetical?
Alright, so by your reckoning Rome was not prepared for war, but the US was prepared for Pearl Harbor, and Chamberlain's Britain was prepared for Hitler? Hmm. How about the Spanish Invasion of Portugal in the 18th century?
There seems to be a disconnect in how we're talking about this. You seem to be understanding the quote as a statement on preparedness; if you want peace, you should ensure your military is heavily funded and capable of repelling all comers.
My read was more about anticipation; if you want peace, you should plan for war.
On the surface it seems like we're saying the same thing, but it comes into conflict when we run into historical examples. Like to my mind, Rome was always preparing for war, at the time of the quote they were waging wars like clockwork. But it's that very habit of bullying their neighbors that put such a large target on their backs.
By contrast, Britain had been working towards disarmament for years before they shifted gears, there was a reason Chamberlain had to buy so much time. Germany on the other hand had been working tirelessly towards their goals of conquest. Germany had been preparing for war while Britain was preparing for peace.
Does that make sense from your perspective?
Do you understand how hypotheticals work?
Hypothetically, I'm your neighbor. I feel like killing you. I have a gun. I have no sense of morality. What stops me?
My point is that I've lived next to people preparing for war, and it was never an issue. I don't see why people can't coexist.
My evasion, guile, and misdirection.
What's your response to the hypothetical? Shoot first?
K now you run away, cool, I can't find you but I get to keep all your stuff and your house. You die from exposure. Great plan.
My answer is that the sanctioned violence of the state provides a check on the violence of individuals. Now we all live in a relatively peaceful society.
That doesn't answer the hypothetical. Are you saying you'd call the cops? What do you do when the killer is coming for you with their gun?
Call the cops, yes. Defend myself if necessary inasmuch as the law allows, because I agreed to be bound by the law. If I live in a rural area and the cops are far away, using violence to defend myself may be the only option.
But whether it's by me or the state, my violent neighbor will be stopped by a greater amount of violence.
One can find the application to this quote pretty much everywhere, everywhen, even in small personal situations, so once it spread it stuck and outlived the Rome itself because it does correspond to what we sometimes think and do. In soviet times (another dead empire) there were a couple of the same-meaning proverbs, like 'alarmed, thus got armed (in time)' I used when I prepared for things like exams, job interviews, long camping trips and stuff, and I'm pretty sure your culture has them too.
I believe that Einstein was very optimistic and said that too early, or dreamed of the future when wars over beliefs, ego or profits aren't a usual occurence. But we as humanity haven't arrived there yet. One of the ways this can occur is if we would see the war not worth it for a long time, to get used to it, and Europe mostly got this by now within itself, but not against external threats. As, so it happens, there are still rogue actors who can start their shitty crusade on their border. And if we won't be so europocentric, the Middle East and Africa and Asia has a lot of war axes dug out for their peers, there are hot and cold conflicts going on even if they aren't covered in what news sources we can read.
Star Trek: TNG's first season has a little mention of how we humans came here, through unimaginable wars and atrocities, before we aknowledged that our ways are wrong. I hope, we would be better and won't see WW3 (or WW4 with sticks and stones as Albert said) play out before we reach something akin to their fantastic future. We may need to come to the parity and agree to tone it all down, and have a century of peace, before we even get into the mentality characters have in this show.
You need to learn how it collapsed and see how your plan would not have changed that.