this post was submitted on 03 Aug 2023
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It won't be 1 year. I've said repeatedly that this is a devkit. In 5 years, when they've had time to get the mass market version out there, there will be at least 10s of millions of apple headsets in the wild.
Apple makes as much money on gaming as Valve does. They're also not new to AR. They launched ARKit in 2017 and it's both powerful and easy to use; it's just not massive due to the limited value of AR on a phone.
The fact that it's Apple is a big part of the fact that it's going to be successful. Except Facebook's obscenely incompetent attempts after the entire planet already knew that they were cancer, nobody has seriously invested in popularizing VR, let alone AR. Valve made it viable, but they haven't marketed it.
The bigger part is that the hardware, up until today, is fucking awful. It's possible to get past that and still have an enjoyable experience, but the displays are shit and the lack of resolution is extremely high strain on your eyes over time. Vision Pro is the first hardware out there that is actually good. I named a whole stack of features that you can't get anywhere else, and probably won't be able to for a couple years. It's a genuine giant leap forward in hardware.