Movies

Apologies.

If you're reading this, odds are you've at least seen some headline online to the effect of "'Moana 2' made a ridiculous amount of money at the box office." That's true. However, box office nerds such as myself have dug a lot deeper and can tell you that "Moana 2" absolutely shattered the Thanksgiving weekend record with a $386 million global debut over the five-day Wednesday-to-Sunday holiday stretch. As of this writing, the sequel has already made more than $405 million worldwide and will soon be one of the top 10 biggest movies of the year across the planet. Not bad for a movie that was originally going to be a Disney+ TV series, eh?

That's truly the big point that needs to be examined here. Originally, Disney intended to make a "Moana" sequel that would have premiered directly on Disney+. Let's forget for a moment that it was intended to be a show, which was likely to help keep subscribers hooked for multiple weeks, rather than a one-and-done. The point is that Disney now has a monster global hit that has turned a beloved 2016 animated film into a full-on franchise. This certainly bodes well for the live-action "Moana" coming our way in 2026.

More than that, in a rational world, this would signify the death of the big direct-to-streaming movie. For years, Hollywood has been chasing the success that Netflix found in the streaming game. That accelerated after the pandemic began and Disney+ has been one of the most successful upstarts in this arena. That said, the benefit of a big theatrical release as opposed to a direct-to-streaming title is clear.

There's simply no longer a rational argument for the latter release strategy. It's been clear for some time, admittedly, but "Moana 2" should be the final nail in the coffin.

Moana 2 would have been completely wasted as a streaming series

Let's rewind the clock a little bit. "Moana" was released in 2016 and went on to make $686 million at the box office, in addition to winning some Oscars. That was at a time before Hollywood truly became obsessed with streaming. Generally speaking, Disney would turn a hit into a franchise with a theatrical sequel. The days of direct-to-home-media animated Disney sequels made by Disneytoon Studios have been over for some time.

Instead, Disney+ launched in 2019. Then the pandemic happened and every studio in the business rushed to launch a streaming service, believing that theatrical was dead and that streaming was the only future. Disney, for what it's worth, did a damn good job of getting people on board, using "Star Wars" shows like "The Mandalorian" and Marvel series like "WandaVision" to attract subscribers. Even in those situations, however, the shows seemed to have diluted the theatrical viability of those franchises in certain ways. That's something that even Disney CEO Bob Iger has acknowledged. "We have Marvel at home," would be one way to look at it.

Cut to now. Disney+ has nearly 159 million subscribers globally. The studio has released dozens upon dozens of big Disney+ exclusives based on popular IP, as well as originals. But what is the most-streamed movie on the service? "Moana." That's right! For all of the investment in original streaming content, a theatrical hit from 2016 is the most-watched movie on Disney+. The popularity of the film on the service undoubtedly contributed to the blockbuster opening weekend for "Moana 2," a movie that is now on track to become the studio's third $1 billion grosser of 2024 after "Deadpool & Wolverine" ($1.33 billion) and "Inside Out 2" ($1.69 billion), which now ranks as the biggest animated film of all time.

Might "Moana 2," be it as a movie or a TV show, have contributed to some Disney+ sign ups? Sure. But it's truly hard to imagine that dumping the project directly to the streaming service would have had the same cultural impact. More importantly, it wouldn't have made Disney nearly as much money. Now, Disney is going to make a fortune at the box office alone, given the sequel's estimated $150 million production budget.

Streaming releases don't have the same cultural staying power

"Moana 2" will also go on to have a healthy run on VOD and sell a bunch of merchandise along with some Blu-rays, even if that market isn't as big as it once was. Then, after all of that, the film will arrive on Disney+, where it will likely do huge numbers because the entire world will be aware that the movie exists. People will have either been eagerly anticipating the opportunity to watch it at home, or kids will be eager to rewatch it (or both). Either way, it's still going to be a big hit on Disney+ in addition to everything else.

In essence, whatever success "Moana 2" sees on Disney+ can now be icing on the cake, rather than having to justify the whole enterprise. Is this to say that a "Moana" series of some kind wouldn't make sense? Of course not. Pixar made "Inside Out 2" and it also has a Disney+ spin-off series coming out titled "Dream Productions," which seems suited to a TV format. On the flip side, so many streaming shows feel like movies that have been chopped up into episodes. Case in point, Disney was able to turn a series into a movie very convincingly with "Moana 2."

Even if "Moana 2" hadn't been this big of a success at the box office, it still would have made more sense playing in theaters then going direct-to-streaming. Look at "Encanto," a movie that made just $261 million worldwide. But that theatrical release paved the way for the film to become a monster streaming hit on Disney+ down the line. Time and time again, we see that movies released in theaters do better on VOD and streaming, even if they weren't outright hits in theaters.

At one time, there was a sense the theatrical market might fade away in the aftermath of the pandemic. Theaters have since by and large recovered from the 2020 lockdowns, so there's no longer any real reason to continue holding onto that fear. Rather, in the future, Disney and every other studio in town would be better off spending large sums of money on movies that have a chance of doing well at the box office. Releasing such projects direct-to-streaming feels like the equivalent of setting cash on fire. In an increasingly uncertain media landscape, it makes zero sense. Take the hits where you can get them.

"Moana 2" is in theaters now.