this post was submitted on 15 Mar 2025
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The talk show host’s ‘Cops’-style ride-along with Trump 'border tsar' Tom Homan is the latest step in the TV psychologist’s political rebranding

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Question - Putin said the war was supposed to last for 2 days or 2 weeks or whatever. Do you think Putin regrets invading Ukraine? Do you?

It was US General Mark Milley who said that it would be 3 days/72 hours to Kyiv.

That does not mean that Putin thought that this war would last for years as he expected Ukraine to capitulate to his demands (which was almost accomplished) which is why the SMO was so half-assed.

Russia did not expect any resistance during the initial invasion of Ukraine. Russia had 170 BTGs fully composed of professional soldiers at the start of the war. Only 64-69 of these BTGs took part according to Ukraine and at half strength. Since these forces did not expect any resistance, they went in without their material technical support brigades which meant they had to rely on ad hoc supply units and looting. The material technical support brigades were only sent into Ukraine around a month after the invasion but Russian units had already sustained heavy losses by then due to the lack of ammunition and supplies. This was too little too late which eventually led to the Russian Armed Forces withdrawing from Ukraine and mostly being replaced by irregulars. For example, when Russian forces withdrew from the Kharkov region, they got replaced by 3rd Army Corps which was thrown into enemy lines to stem the tide.

If it was not half assed, Russia would likely have utilized lessons learned from when they sent in units during the Donbas War, meaning that they would have sent in drones to map out positions, bomb said positions to hell destroying entire Ukrainian brigades in minutes like what happened in 2014, then send forward units with their material technical support brigades actually attached and they would locate surviving Ukrainian units, and smash them into pieces forcing Ukraine to send in their reserves to the front to seal up openings which without reservists back at Kiev, would allow the Hostomel operation to succeed in its entirety by giving the VDV time to prepare the airfield in order to create an air bridge. Ukraine then quickly capitulates to Russia's demands.

Putin in my opinion, probably regrets half assing the initial invasion. Now it has turned into a war of attrition. This means that Russia has to look for alternatives outside of the military such as private military contractors or volunteers to fight in Ukraine. This is because preparing hundreds of thousands of soldiers to fight in Ukraine would cause a large amount of unrest at home and would destabalize the economy. This is also why I think that Russia might be preparing to use a larger portion of its military this year in the spring. Zelenskyy seems to agree as he has been talking about Russia launching an offensive into Sumy from Russia and another one into Kyiv from Belarus. The economy has since adapted to the Special Military Operation meaning it would be less destabilized from a full-scale war. The population is suffering from war exhaustion despite attempts by Russia to prevent war exhaustion by using private military contractors and volunteers but Kursk might have increased public support for a full-scale war.