AI slop and my ML instance-ship? Ok dude, whatever...

First things first, the 66% is not reliable when you clearly see that the data is segregated along party lines. Nevertheless, there is a rise in favor of restrictions among Democrats and Democrat-leaning respondents. I have explained in the above and I will reiterate here that this can be explained in the network structure and dynamics of MAGA propaganda.

Since you make clear that you do NOT argue for a concession but in pursuit of a convincing argument, I respond below. But you make clear that you are not support watering down trans rights, so that none of the devastating arguments I presented is relevant to your position. Let's examine that then.

The "convincing argument" you are talking about is a lost cause, because you forget that the right does not listen to reason. If you follow the link I have linked at the word "sports" you will see that there are several arguments about it. It doesn't matter at all. There are great arguments out there, for the whole range of transphobic fascist propaganda. The problem is that it does not reach critical mass. In comparison, transphobic propaganda is obscenely funded and organized, as the rest of the links suggest. Specifically those links:

Right wing domination of the online media ecosystem

Racist propaganda

Nazi propaganda

Wartime propaganda tactics

Who the fuck funds so many anti-trans hate groups?

Democrat's media outlets spewing transphobic prejudice

Democrat media outlets 2

Gender critical "leftist" intellectuals

See if you cared about putting forward a convincing argument, you would take links such as this, and this includes my own posts, and would push them to a wider and wider network of ambassadors and online/offline propagandists, to reach as many people as possible. Agitating in left-wing forums, bordering on concern-trolling, crying there is no convincing argument for trans women in women's sports, does not cut it. It is defeatist and achieves exactly one thing: to out you as a person who is not individually persuaded by a single argument in favor of trans people. I will not make assumptions about your precious individuality as to why is that. For the majority of people it is just SELF-CENSORED cis-genderism.

The plethora of right wing propaganda agents and the substantial amount of center-left cisgenderist apologists gives a sufficient explanation as to why public discourse has regressed more and more to more primitive and dehumanizing stereotypes and truism, no matter how many great arguments trans advocates have put out there.

Additionally:

• Because mainstream platforms amplified hate speech, failed to moderate harassment, shadow banned, echo-chambered, and eventually pushed out advocates and turned into nazi bars.
• Because the ever-growing right wing propaganda network became more and more interconnected and overlapping, that successive cycles of outrage and backlash allowed them to prevail in mass culture, by pushing more and more reactionary points.
• Because this all went down without a shred of a response from Democrats.

Even the data you present reveal the most important thing about them: their TIME RANGE. There is no other explanation than the insane reach of transphobic fascist propaganda. I don't have the tools as an individual to break down how the content has regressed from "legitimate concerns" to raw, primal, animus against trans people. But this is what was done:

They went from "We are NOT saying trans people ARE perverts and predators, BUT that real predators MIGHT exploit self-identification to wear dresses and attack women in segregated spaces", all the way to "trans people are groomers, rapists and pedophiles" in a span of a few short years.

The arguments were right there, like Zinnia Jones had debunked the bathroom thing as soon as 2015. Same goes for detransition rates and effectiveness of transition. The issue here is not the message but the network of information flow that is entirely controlled by the platforms and the racist and nazi funds that are backing them and manipulating them.

Relevant research also shows (in the propaganda firehose article I have linked in the text) that responding to organized propaganda is futile. The response to this is to GROW SUPPORT for trans people, which is consistent with years and years of insight that transphobes DON'T listen to reason. The rare EXCEPTION is this dude. What changed his mind? Listening. That is what changed his mind.

If you care about trans issues, you should see to the available information to reach as many people as possible, both in quantity as well as information flow patterns in the network.

I would add, a proactive strategy for dismantling platforms and suppressing hate-speech are also part of the solution.

Since you insist that you never said that the left must concede on trans sports and condone segregation on the basis of gender identity, I will take it that my previous argumentation does not apply to your take, and you subscribe that eroding the rights of any protected group is out of the question, as far as your suggested strategy is concerned.

As per your own statements, you only think that there is not a convincing argument for trans women participation in sports, I have linked to a number of scientific arguments, and I added the moral in-feasibility of segregation on top of that. Is there anything else?