this post was submitted on 21 Mar 2025
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No, they're absolutely not. Their GDP will majorly decline, but their QOL will stay the same or even improve and their GDP per capita also won't see much change.
Birtherism is bullshit.
Their nation needs tax revenue. That depends on having people to tax. If the population declines too much they cannot afford to maintain social services and QoL will decline.
None of this is particularly controversial or surprising.
The services' costs are dependent on the number of recipients. They're already in the slump of elderly being a drain on the system, it can only get better not worse.
The only concern of the population decline that I can see is the decrease in funding available for Military Expenses.
And, if things get really bad, all they have to do is open up for immigration and able bodied workers will magically appear.
You are the only person I have seen claiming the elder population of Japan is decreasing or that there is light at the end of the tunnel.
https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/e/zenkoku_e2023/pp2023e_PressRelease.pdf
Japan might not get the right immigrants at the right time. They shouldn't count on skilled labor appearing when they need it.
If Generation A has a higher number of people than Generation B then when Generation A dies off there will be a lower number of elderly. It's a temporary slump. It might last a decade or more, but it is temporary.
According to your source the Percentage of people aged over 65 peaks in 2042 or 2043 at about 38% if the government does nothing, compared to the 29.6% currently.
Right now a lot of skilled workers are fleeing to the EU, so Japan could totally capitalize on that. Or it can just educate its population to be skilled labor and give all the low skilled labor (if that even exists) to immigrants. Immigrants work hard for lower wages and are less prone to crime, there is no good faith argument against that.
The projected population of elderly people is projected to be 40% of the total population within 50 years unless substantial shifts happen. They are not replacing workers fast enough.
Japan has never wanted more immigrants and soon they will need a LOT of immigrants. Japan's traditional xenophobia might prevent them for getting enough people.
I'm interested to know how you believe the elderly will be cared for? Let's assume for a moment they have no issues financially supporting the elderly, but physically who is supposed to care for them? Who will make up the nurses, doctors and caretakers now that their population pyramid looks like a chicken drumstick?
Japan has a large amount of unused labor in the current demographic breakup of 29% elderly, Japan has a large number of educated inviduals, and Japan has a large amount of capital even without infinite growth shenanigans.
Any failure to take care elderly even at 38% or even 50% would be a failure of the state as a result of greed or corruption. It's a relatively simple task to accomplish. The year is 2025, automation replaced most other jobs a long long time ago.