this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2023
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GenZedong
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There are definitely a lot of really horrific scenarios that open up if the west keeps escalating. I don't think stuff like f16s is going to really make much of a difference though. The real escalation would be NATO countries getting directly involved. In particular, there's been talk of making a coalition with Poland and some Baltic countries that would be outside of NATO. However, once they're in trouble then there will be a lot of pressure for the rest of NATO to get involved.
On the other hand, there is continued discontent with the way the war is going in the west, and the economic situation in western countries continues to unravel. So, the west may be forced to pull out in the end. I imagine that democrats will not want to have the war hanging over them during the election, so they may decide that whatever political damage they suffer is best to absorb now.
Also agree that we may see a lot of regime change happening in Europe. Anti war parties are gaining popularity in a lot of countries, and as recession deepens support for current regimes will wither.
I certainly can't see Russia agreeing to any sort of a freeze though. That would simply allow NATO to rearm Ukraine and effectively brings things back to where they were before the war. Now that Russia has committed itself to the war, they will see it through to the end.
The best case scenario is likely for the west to implode economically so that the rest of the world can move on.