Microblog Memes

If there’s a round peg and a square hole, the square hole is Frequentism.

Frequentism won't work with a contained set of inputs. But now we're getting into Abstract Algebra rather than probability.

I don’t understand your point about Bill Gates. You’re saying he had one plan, but then found another plan worked better.

I'm saying he kept coming at the problem dead on without exploring the second and third order consequences of did policies.

Lots of maths up front but the models were shit. The end result was a reactionary mess precisely because Gates and his lackeys didn't care about the popular politics of their policies.

Ozy’s observation is that EA charity organizations generally focus on the opposite of buy-in; they look for areas of neglect

The observation that mosquitoe nets and medical interventions have a long term benefit isn't a problem on its face. But, again, Ozy is attacking a complex problem of supply chains and sustainable development from a very boiled down "do things that look good on my spreadsheet" as the "Effective" solution.

When these plans fall apart, because the proponents fail to account for second order problems, they denounce everyone else as another problem they need to strike head on, rather than considering where they went wrong.

Case in point

Poverty and food insecurity are the main reasons why some fishermen in Malawi use mosquito nets as illegal fishing nets, an analysis conducted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Communication Programs has found.

Because the focus was on disease and food security was discounted as a less pressing problem, the primary tool for mitigating disease spread became an environmental catastrophe.