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If Trump fires the Fed’s Powell ‘both the currency and the bond market can collapse,’ according to Deutsche Bank (fortune.com)

submitted 1 week ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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If Trump gets his way and removes Jerome Powell as chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the market reaction would be swift and brutal, Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos argues.

It could collapse the currency and bond markets, he says in a note seen by Fortune. Polymarket puts the chances of a Powell ouster at 19%.

“We consider the removal of Chair Powell as one of the largest underpriced event risks,” Saravelos says.

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[–] [email protected] 51 points 1 week ago (4 children)

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Given how the markets have at this point have elected to completely ignore Trump it wouldn't surprise me if the sky falls for two days and then the world collectively decides to ignore and forget the shit show.

[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Part of that is high frequency trading. Computers that blindly trade with other computers. It has a stabilizing effect on the market because it's divorced from reality.

But there's the risk. It's divorced from reality.

So far, when things go bad the Fed has stepped in to halt trading for the day.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 5 days ago

I hate that we evaluate the health of the economy by the growth in the stock market.

The stock market would continue growing until the power grid failed if every human on earth just evaporated into mist.

Actually it would probably break before that when one of 6 people’s two factor authentication timed out and the computer no longer had access to their accounts.

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