this post was submitted on 15 Jul 2025
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Economics

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If Trump gets his way and removes Jerome Powell as chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the market reaction would be swift and brutal, Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos argues.

It could collapse the currency and bond markets, he says in a note seen by Fortune. Polymarket puts the chances of a Powell ouster at 19%.

“We consider the removal of Chair Powell as one of the largest underpriced event risks,” Saravelos says.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago (4 children)

So...what do I buy puts on, to profit from this?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago)

"you want to short the federal government??? yeah we will take your money high five bro"

I think I've seen this movie.

You can buy inverse ETFs on bond market benchmarks. Unlike stocks though, the interest rate will tick up as bond demand (price) goes down, so the dips tend get muted as people gobble up anything over 5%

[–] [email protected] 3 points 23 hours ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 3 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago) (1 children)

If you assume the entire stock market won't collapse. Half those companies aren't just inbred, they're codependent.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 12 hours ago

Finally, some good news.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 22 hours ago
[–] [email protected] 1 points 21 hours ago

1000 units of gold-pressed latinum

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I'd allow it so that people will finally realise.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 14 hours ago

People will cheer the low interest rate on their plummeting dollar value debt.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 22 hours ago

Realize what? They'll say "fucking Biden, look at the state he left the country"

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago
[–] [email protected] 50 points 2 days ago (2 children)

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Given how the markets have at this point have elected to completely ignore Trump it wouldn't surprise me if the sky falls for two days and then the world collectively decides to ignore and forget the shit show.

[–] [email protected] 21 points 2 days ago (2 children)

Part of that is high frequency trading. Computers that blindly trade with other computers. It has a stabilizing effect on the market because it's divorced from reality.

But there's the risk. It's divorced from reality.

So far, when things go bad the Fed has stepped in to halt trading for the day.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 12 hours ago

I hate that we evaluate the health of the economy by the growth in the stock market.

The stock market would continue growing until the power grid failed if every human on earth just evaporated into mist.

Actually it would probably break before that when one of 6 people’s two factor authentication timed out and the computer no longer had access to their accounts.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 2 days ago

My thoughts exactly. The billionaires control enough of the markets that they will force a correction and everyone will buy back in... and the billionaires will get even richer.

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[–] [email protected] 52 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I mean shit, the entire global economy almost collapsed because a boat got turned sideways.

Whatever this would represent, catastrophic isn't enough of a word for it.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 2 days ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 days ago

“I’ve been so worried about losing my old life that I forgot about all the exciting new chapters that lay ahead. I could’ve never seen Ever coming, but now that he’s here, I’m thrilled by what else lies on the road ahead.”

Well then it was all worth it, wasn't it?

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 day ago (6 children)

what is the upside for MAGA of devaluing USD?

[–] [email protected] 4 points 14 hours ago

Cheaper for the 1% to buy all of our stuff to fully become a corrupt nation of oligarchy.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 14 hours ago

Easier to pay down debts made up of worthless money (if you have money that isn't worthless). If you had €100 in November 2024, you could pay off $100 debt. Right now you only need €85 to pay off $100 debt.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago

American manufactured products are cheaper on the world market.

Raw resources are more expensive to import so source everything form the US

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 day ago

They want to destroy America because corporate centrists already destroyed their rural communities.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago

making more money is good, but lowering the worth of your workers is another way to afford more people

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 day ago

Stock market numbers go higher

[–] [email protected] 39 points 2 days ago

he will say Powell is fired, buy lots of bonds and stocks, and then say just kidding, and sell again

[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 day ago

Well, the USD as far overrated, so any correction is a) needed and b) painful.

The only hope is that a breakdown of US economy will be remembered as made by Trump and the GOP.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 day ago (1 children)

and you, Duestche bank, helped him and the russians do it via laundering money for him.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Duestche bank

Deutsche Bank

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago

Douche Bank

[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 days ago

Been waiting on Trump's temper to get the best of him. You know the people around him are manipulating him in every way possible to avoid firing Powell. This is a thing he can't lie, cheat or walk back. Most of all, it would instantly devastate the rich. And then the rest of us of course.

Great article that hits hard on a subject I've been thinking on.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Considering I've lost all faith in fiat currencies, including the US dollar, I no longer measure my net worth in it, this would be quite good for my gold and monero holdings. Because those are stable assets, not controlled by the whims of any central bank or government.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Unless there's a bug in Monero that nobody has discovered yet, which would explain why it keeps losing value relative to bitcoin.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Bitcoin seems to change value more dramatically than Monero, from everything I've seen. That works both ways, though.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago (1 children)

That is weird. It should have gone up a lot since 2018 because of the smaller market cap and excellent fundamentals.

I can't even argue with you. It's practically a stablecoin by crypto standards.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 12 hours ago) (1 children)

My understanding is that it was deliberately designed that way because it was intended to be used as a medium of exchange and not a vehicle for investment.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 12 hours ago (1 children)

One of those fundamentals is a tightly scheduled supply. The tail emission is just to ensure mining security and is insignificant compared to XMR appreciation. That's why the guy above saves gold and Monero.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

Hell yeah. Also have a look at XMRBazaar.com where you can buy and sell legal goods and services directly for Monero. X premium, Spotify, Canva pro, laptops, houses, cars, etc. are all on there and many things are priced directly in Monero.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

While that is a possibility, there are a lot of incredibly intelligent people who do their absolute best to make sure that that does not happen.

And just like Bitcoin, upgrades are only deployed after they have been thoroughly vetted and torture tested to hell.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

I'd hesitate to use Monero as an investment, or for long-term storage.

Because of its nature, lots of powerful people (if they were aware of it) would be terrified of it and do everything they can to kill it, including legislation. I just don't trust governments to not destroy it if it ever became popular enough.

It might be stable now, but all it takes is some purposefully stifling regulations from EU and US...

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Which is why I hold it as a long-term store value. The harder they regulate it, the more the strizend effect happens.

I want them to be fucking terrified. I want them to wake up at night in cold sweats screaming their fucking heads off because that's how afraid they are. I want them to have stress-induced heart attacks caused by Monero.

That would be success to me.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

Yeah, I mean... Good luck with that I guess.

What really happens when they start arresting people when they find out they have Monero, is a chilling effect and a price crash.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

Then they have to take all those people to court one by one, which wastes their own funds. And as they lose, because those are just regular people, then other people will start asking what the hell they're doing.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 12 hours ago
[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 days ago

I live and work in a third world country. The currency here is weak against the dollar.

I do something think if the dollar crashed to the value it is in this country, I could pretty quickly pay off my families debts.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 days ago

We already knew this, it's just matter of time.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

How can it collapse the currency market? If one currency goes down in value the other goes up. Currency traders earn money either way they thrive on volatility.

He probably means the USD is going to drop and that will have severe consequences for the world economy. Since the US is a net importer. And most debt in the world is held in USD.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago

Well what's another lifetime if I get to pay enough of the house that my grandchildren can probably rent it for a lower monthly installment?