this post was submitted on 10 Feb 2024
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Bro if you could get there just by prompting, it would be.
There are no models good enough to just ask for something to be done and it gets done.
There will be someday though.
I mean it can start much smaller.
Here is access to a jira board. Here are unit tests. Do stuff until it works.
I mean, I had beta access to ChatGPT and have gotten excellent results from clever use, so I don't appreciate the appeal to authority.
No, the jobs are going away and you are delusional if you think otherwise. ChatGPT is the DeepBlue of these kinds of models, and a global effort is being made to get to the AlphaGo level of these models. It will happen, probably in weeks to months. A company, like Microsoft for example, could build something like this, never release it to the public, and if successful, can suddenly out-compete every other software company on the planet. 100%.
Your attitude is a carbon copy of the same naysaying attitude that could be see all over hackernews before ChatGPT found its way to the front page. That AI wasn't ever going to do XY or Z. Then it does. Then the goal posts have to move.
AI will be writing end to end architecture, writing teh requirements documents, filling out the jira tickets. Building the unit tests. If you don't think that a company would LOVE to depart with its 250k+ per year software engineers, bro...
You seem mad and strongly opinionated, but I hate arguing when there is nothing on the line. Would you be interested in a gentleman's bet then?
My thesis is that we'll have (or some one will, you and I may not have access) to a form of interactive AI that can effectively code from scratch some kind of large-ish application (like a website), make changes to that website, add features, etc, in the next few years, like, very few.
I'd like to come to terms with you and lay down a bet. If need be we can start a sublemmy to post the bet publicly and we can be held accountable for public shaming if we fail to put up.
For the purposes of a bet, I want to suggest that a code base 'as complicated' as Lemmy is a good barometer. My getting this prediction right will be to show you an example of that happening in media, or ideally, being able to show it in use. I think in media should be considered acceptable.
In my circles, we usually make these bets beers or bottles of the counterparties favorite drink, and I'm willing to offer you the following terms: 3:1 in the first year, 2:1 in the second year, and 1:1 in the first year. If the above thesis isn't confirm, I'm wrong and I'll make it clear that I acknowledge that I'm wrong.
I would like to bet 12 bottles on my thesis based on the above terms, (where a case of 12 bottles of the preferred liquor or beer or whatever does not exceed $200, so like a 12 pack of good beer or mid tier wine).
Is that a deal you can agree to?
Now who's moving the goalposts..?
I'm putting my money where my mouth is and making a called shot.
We call those "compilers". There are many of them.