this post was submitted on 05 May 2024
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[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Well isn't there a ruling in aircraft design and safety, that you calculate the probability of a certain failure and judge by its reoccurence if it was just random, or more than likely systematic?

I think i read this in context to the two MAX planes crashing in the exact same way. The first one was ruled as maybe just being some very very freak thing to happen, but it happening twice made it entirely implausible to be without systematic cause.

And well now it is happening twice in a few years with Boeing that weird things happen twice in a row with little time in between in relation to critical security flaws.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

I don’t know if that’s a rule of thumb or not, but it certainly makes sense.

First, the world of reliability runs on data and math. Lots of statistics, of course.

And second, aircraft are over-engineered for safety margins on top of safety margins. The test data might say you need a part that’s X thickness of aluminum in order to be 99% sure to never fail in the field. So let’s just make it 3X thickness to be safe!

So from that standpoint, back to back failures should pretty much always draw a bunch of attention in this industry.