this post was submitted on 23 Feb 2025
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Centre-right CDU and CSU parties win election, say exit polls

Germany’s centre-right CDU and CSU parties have won the federal elections with about 28.5 to 29 per cent of the vote according to exit polls, paving the way for CDU leader Friedrich Merz to become chancellor at a time of economic and political upheaval in Europe’s largest democracy.

The far-right Alternative for Germany co-led by Alice Weidel recorded its best result with 19.5 — 20 per cent of the vote on Sunday, according to the preliminary projections by state broadcasters ARD and ZDF. That is double what the anti-immigration party achieved in 2021.

Meanwhile Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party won just 16 to 16.5 per cent of the votes.

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[–] [email protected] 58 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Inside Perspective here:

The former government colation (SPD, Greens, FDP) did not do a good enough job in the eyes of most germans. Mostly due to sabotage from the FDP who repeatedly blocked proposals and was the main reason for the breaking of the whole coaltition in the first place...

While the artivle claims that the CDU is expected to hold of against the AfD, the situation on the ground is different. Merz has just recently broken tabu by wanting to push an immigration restriction explicitly with votes from the AfD. So fears that the CDU is willing to form a government with them are substantiated by precedent.

This woule give them a majority, but could break the CDU internally. Not all of them like the AfD and Merz is barely human to begin with, especially unpopular with women for good reasons. Even a former chancellor, Angela Merkel, stepped in to explocitly criticise Merz for that move specifically.

Likely it will be CDU + SPD or CDU + SPD + Greens.

All of this is happening while a ban of the AfD is currently underway, but with this result that idea might become compromised.

Summary: Things turned out bad as expected, but as long as a CDU + AfD coalition is avoided, we still have a slim chance to not burn down the whole country.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago (1 children)

is there a possibility that FDP falls under electoral threshold this time?

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Possible, but it will be close. Will have to wait for the final count to know for sure, same with BSW

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

what impact would it have on division of seats for other parties?

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 month ago

From what I've seen if FDP and BSW don't make the threshold, it's more likely that CDU/CSA and SPD will have a majority with just the two of them.

[–] [email protected] 50 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (3 children)

Nazis won’t be part of the government after this result.
The conservatives have stated before the election that they won’t form a coalition with the far right AfD, the green party or the left party. But with this result, they have a majority with the social democrats alone.

This will be a stable, centrist, boring government, typically German. Too little progress, but no catastrophe, and no threat to EU democracy, nor to international obligations or support for Ukraine. Neither party are Putin bootlickers either.

In the opposition, the greens and the left combined have more seats than the AfD. And 84% turnout is the highest since 1987!!!

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Good old boring politics. Those were the days...

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago

Yeah, what I would give for more milquetoast leadership in Washington instead of this dumpster fire.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 month ago (3 children)

This will be a stable, centrist, boring government, typically German. Too little progress, but no catastrophe

And this will be the problem and drive even more people to the AfD. If nothing ever changes, people want to look for something else. For an alternative. And on the surface some points of AfD sound appealing, and if you aren't a foreigner, you can "turn a blind eye" on the nazi stuff. With a Groko and standstill for 4 more years, I'm afraid that next time we won't be so lucky and AfD will actually be the strongest party.

It is very ironic because for the first time after 16 years things did change but somehow the government was still blamed and bashed. Let alone that the biggest problem was not SPD and Greens but that the minister of finance was only focused on politics for the minister of finance. I'm happy this fuckwit finally resigned, but we could have had a great minority government that would have actually enabled change if he had just decided to do this earlier. Instead, thank you Christian, you've driven the whole country down a path where we are supposed to be happy that a conservative party who fucked the country for 16 years is the strongest power yet again and that "they promised" to not form a coalition with AfD. DeMoCRaCy wOn.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Yeah, leftist politics will drive more people to the AfD, conservative politics will drive more people to the AfD, ignoring the AfD will drive more people to the AfD, giving them too much air time will drive more people to the AfD, yadayadayada....

This was the election with the highest voter turnout in 40 years and the AfD got 20%.
The same 20% who have consistently given far-right and anti-semitic answers in opinion polls and political studies all throughout the recent history of the Bundesrepublik.
There were always 20% Nazis here, they just didn't vote in past elections, or they voted CDU/CSU.
Our political system can deal with those 20%, whether they have their own party or not. That's exactly what the German constitution was designed to do right from the start.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)

20% Nazis? Are you out of your mind? Every fifth person?

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

If you ask questions like, "Is the life of an immigrant worth as much as that of a German?" or "Do the Jews have too much power?", then yes, 20% will consistently hold nazi beliefs.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Where did you get that from? You can't just quote without providing a source.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago

In their defense, the AfD did indeed get over 20% of the votes, and won almost every single district in former East Germany.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

AFD said they'll win it all next time, and if people continue consuming Russian/Elon shitposting and rotting their brain, they probably will

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

I think France is more likely to turn Fascist.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

Boring and little progress IS a catastrophe.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Voter turnout reaches 84%, highest since 1990

Voter turnout reached its highest level since German reunification in 1990, with exit poll data suggesting a turnout of 84 per cent.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

That is, wow. I guess it's true, but ATM it feels too high to be real. Like I also heard about two states having closer to 20% voter turnout. Which surely are outliers (and WTF is wrong with people to not vote with so much at stake), but still 84% is very high.

Sooo I just make a comment on social media stating my opinion asking for other opinions ... Alright I found something more useful: https://www.wahlen.info/bundestagswahl/wahlbeteiligung/

It seems conservative Bavaria was pulling the turnout train.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

The only consolation is that the left got nearly 9% and green around 12%, making 21% in total. A shame they won't make it into the coalition though.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 month ago (5 children)

Can we gets some thoughts on this, as an outsider I have no idea what this means for the political impacts this might have. Is this good or bad? I would say that the far-right doubling in votes doesnt seem like a good thing. Is the cdu and csu going to combat those far-right views or promote them?

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 month ago (1 children)

The AfD had been polling at around 20% for a while. While this is ominous, them not having exceeded their expectations, despite Russia, China and Elon Musk pushing them hard is somewhat of a relief. If the BSW (former hard-leftists now making common cause with the far right, and also strongly Putinist) fall under the threshold because of voters going back to Die Linke (old-school hard-leftists who are not explicitly Putinist), and the Greens don’t collapse, those are also encouraging.

Germany’s looking to have a right-of-centre government, though they have ruled out going into coalition with the AfD, so what’s likely is probably a grand coalition (Großkoalition, or GroKo) bringing in other parties. The SPD as junior partner to the CDU would be unusual, and any left-of-centre parties supporting a right-wing government would risk alienating their supporters, so a CDU-led GroKo would be somewhat constrained in its decision-making. The other option would be a Swedish-style deal where the AfD are not officially in the government but provide support and have a say on policy, though Germany isn’t Sweden, and the far right are probably too toxic to countenance such an arrangement.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

SPD has all but officially confirmed their willingness to negotiate a coalition. There FPD won't have enough votes, if any. And the greens are too far apart.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 month ago (1 children)

In the past CDU/CSU never managed to combat far-right views, just like any other conservative party/movement never managed to catch and mitigate far-right positions.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 month ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago)

Yup. That's because most "moderate" conservatives fundamentally agree with far right positions, or at least don't disagree with them even though they might not be enthusiastic supporters

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 month ago

Outsider as well but it’s definitely bad. Will wait for others to provide more detail.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago

Friedrich MerzLeader of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and candidate for chancellor

A former BlackRock Germany chair and amateur pilot, Merz is widely expected to become the next chancellor. He has promised to revitalise Germany’s stagnant economy, but his alignment with the far-right on migration has alienated potential coalition partners.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 month ago (2 children)

With the need to reduce or eliminate reliance on the US for defense and an increasingly pugilistic Russia, perhaps the next move should be to start a massive scale-up of the German armed forces. This could also give a necessary boost to the economy.

While the scale-up is in progress, a non-aggression pact with Russia would be prudent. Germany could always turn on them when the time is right.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 month ago (1 children)

German non-aggression pact with Russia... where have I read that before?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

Germany could always turn on them when the time is right.

That's too close to history to be an accident. I take the whole 2nd paragraph as satire, which I like.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

While the scale-up is in progress, a non-aggression pact with Russia would be prudent.

What for? Srsly what for? Russia proved they shit on bilateral and multilateral contracts and the Geneva convention. Why should anyone reward them with a NAP?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

Just for historical purposes, I guess.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 month ago (3 children)

I keep saying, you guys only strengthen the other side when you try to control what people are allowed to say and even think.

Focus on up vs. down, not left vs. right. We're being distracted by cultural issues while the ruling class fucks us with fiscal ones.

Every single person who focuses on the culture war over the class war is playing right into the hands of our rulers.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 month ago (1 children)

you guys only strengthen the other side when you try to control what people are allowed to say and even think.

Somebody fell for right wing propaganda.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

Not really.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Left vs right is literally down vs up

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (4 children)

No, it's not. I'm sorry if you're delusional enough to think otherwise.

You may have had a point if Bernie won a nomination, but the left has made it clear they don't care about reducing the disparity in wealth.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 month ago

You may have had a point if Bernie won a nomination

in Germany???

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I don’t think Bernie was running for Die Linke. You’re out of scope bud. It’s Germany 🇩🇪 election.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

If you haven't noticed, the rest of the western world lives in America's shadow.

They follow. They don't lead.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

Okay, well the US “left” and “right” may not be up to the usual standards, but it quite literally is up and down elsewhere and in premise.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

If you meant democrat vs republican just write that next time lol

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 month ago

Germans managed to buy themselves time, but I'm still worried by AFD's gains. It's good to hear Merz is at least unwilling to form a coalition with AFD, but I don't know how long that's going to last since Merz is a piece of shit too.

A CDU/CSU + SPD coalition seems like peak neoliberalism though, so fascism is going to knock on Germany's door again. Hopefully those plans to ban AFD seriously materialize before then.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 month ago

The main coalition scenarios

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, is widely expected to win the election with around 30 per cent of the vote. 

Such a result would be only six percentage points higher than its historically worst performance in 2021. Anything below 30 per cent would be a disappointment for Merz, who has sought to contain the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is projected to win one in five votes on Sunday.

Merz has expressed willingness to govern with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens, while ruling out any coalition with the AfD. However, coalition negotiations could become complicated if smaller parties surpass the 5 per cent vote threshold and enter parliament.

A more fragmented Bundestag could make a two-party coalition unfeasible, potentially forcing Merz into a three-party alliance — a scenario reminiscent of the dysfunctional coalition between the SPD, the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP).

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Germany can only support genocide for so long without going full fash... much like USA.