this post was submitted on 04 Feb 2025
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Switch 2 comes out this year. So I doubt it. Most switch sales will be second hand.
The 3DS still sold 10 million units after the Switch launched, so it's not impossible. One could argue the Switch is the successor to both 3DS and Wii U, but it's hard to compare. If they price it right and try to clear stock, I think they can totally do it. Would also be something to brag about, but then again it's not really Japanese business culture to brag, so maybe that's not the biggest motivator for them.
Surpassing the PS2 in sold units will always be inevitable. If it won't be the switch it will be the switch 2 for sure. That console is going to be extremely hard to get from retail though.