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this post was submitted on 31 May 2025
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Showerthoughts
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A "Showerthought" is a simple term used to describe the thoughts that pop into your head while you're doing everyday things like taking a shower, driving, or just daydreaming. The most popular seem to be lighthearted clever little truths, hidden in daily life.
Here are some examples to inspire your own showerthoughts:
- Both “200” and “160” are 2 minutes in microwave math
- When you’re a kid, you don’t realize you’re also watching your mom and dad grow up.
- More dreams have been destroyed by alarm clocks than anything else
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What are you talking about it asymptoped at 5 units. It cant be described as exponential until it is exponential otherwise its better described as linear or polynomial if you must.
Exponential growth is always exponential, not just if it suddenly starts to drastically increase in the arbitrarily choosen view scale.
A simple way, to check wether data is exponential, is to visualize it in loc-scale, and if it shows there a linear behavior, it has a exponential relation.
Exponential growth means, that the values change by a constant ratio, contrary to linear growth where the data changes by a constant rate.
There's no point in arguing with OP, he's doubling down at an exponential rate (or was it linear).
That's what I said. Exponential growth is always exponential.
Close enough chat gpt
I have at this point absolutely no idea anymore, what you want to tell me. Would you care to rephrase your statement, on which we are disagreeing, so we can back on track and have a constructive discussion.
It's exponential along its entire range, even all the way back to negative infinity.
Sure. Everything is exponential if you model it that way asymptote.
No, exponential functions are that way. A feature of exponential functions is that it increases very slowly until the slope hits 1. We're still on the slow part, we didn't really have any way of knowing exactly the extreme increase will be.
Do you think that our current iteration of A.I. can have these kinds if gains? Like, what if the extreme increase happens beyond our lifetimes? or beyond the lifetime of our planet?
No, LLMs have always been an evident dead end when it comes to general AI.
They're hampering research in actual AI, and the fact that they're being marketed as AI ensures that no one will invest in actual AI research in decades after the bubble bursts.
We were on track for a technological singularity in our lifetimes, until those greedy bastards derailed us and murdered the future by poisoning the Internet with their slop for some short term profits.
Now we'll go extinct due to ignorance and global warming long before we have time to invent something smart enough to save us.
But, hey, at least, for a little while, their line did go up, and that's all that matters, it seems.
I think we can't know, but LLMs definitely feel like a notable acceleration. Exponential functions are also, well, exponential. As X grows, X × X grows faster. The exponential part is gonna come from meta-models, coordinating multiple specialized models to complete complex tasks. Once we get a powerful meta-model, we're off to the races. AI models developing AI models.
It could take 50 years, it could take 5, it could happen this Wednesday. We won't know which development is going to be the one to tip us over the edge until it happens, and even then only in retrospect. But it could very well be soon.
An exponential function is a precise mathematical concept, like a circle or an even number. I'm not sure what you mean by "asymptote" here - an exponential function of the form
y = k^xasymptotically approaches zero asxgoes to negative infinity, but that doesn't sound like what you're referring to.People often have bad intuition about how exponential functions behave. They look like they grow slowly at first but that doesn't mean that they're not growing exponentially. Consider the story about the grains of rice on a chessboard.
The derivative of an exponential is exponential. The relative difference between -1 and -2 is the same as 1 and 2.
I’d say the development is exponential. Compare what we had 4 years ago, 2 years ago and now. 4 years ago it was inconceivable that an AI model could generate any convincing video at all. 2 years ago we laughed at Will Smith eating pasta. Today we have Veo 3 which generates videos with sound that are near indistinguishable from real life.
It’s not going to be long until you regularly see AI generated videos without realizing it’s AI.