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130

What does China achieve from invading Taiwan? (pawb.social)

submitted 1 day ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

77 comments fedilink hide all child comments

I understand the historical significance since the nationalists retreated to Taiwan at the end of the Chinese Civil War.

Back then, and for perhaps the middle part of the 20th century, there was a threat of a government in exile claiming mainland China. Historically, then, there was your impetus for invasion.

However, China has since grown significantly, and Taiwan no longer claims to be the government of mainland China, so that reason goes away.

Another reason people give: control the supply of chips. Yet, wouldn’t the Fabs, given their sensitive nature, be likely to be significantly destroyed in the process of an invasion?

Even still, China now has its own academia and engineering, and is larger than Taiwan. Hence, even without the corporate espionage mainland China is known for, wouldn’t investing in their burgeoning semiconductor industry make more sense, rather than spending that money on war?

People mention that taking Taiwan would be a breakout from the “containment” imposed by the ring of U.S. allies in the region.

Yet while taking Taiwan would mean access to deep-water ports, it’s not as though Taiwan would ever pose a threat to Chinese power projection—their stance is wholly defensive. If China decided to pull an “America” and send a carrier to the Middle East or something, no one would stop them and risk a war.

So what is it then? Is it just for national pride and glory? Is it to create a legacy for their leadership? The gamble just doesn’t really seem worth it.

Anyway, appreciate your opinions thanks!

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[–] [email protected] 35 points 1 day ago (1 children)

You are approaching this from the perspective of a rational peaceful person from the west, where usually the economy is number one in everything.

Xi has achieved unrivaled rule over the party. He has successfully established a police state that ensures that any domestic dissent is immediately crushed with brutal efficiency. He has subjugated the provinces that dared to think about self rule and cultural differences, and is in the process of ethnic cleansing without any significant opposition or consequences. He has gained colonial influence all over Africa through economic means. He has taken over Hong Kong. He has significantly modernized and expanded the military, including nuclear weapons. He had made China into a global economic superpower, which other countries, including rivals, depend on for a significant amount of manufactured goods and resources.

So what is left for him? Surely he is not a man who can be content with what he has.

The obvious next step is to make China into a military superpower. For that you need to exert power abroad. What better place to begin with than that small island just off your coast that has been a challenge to Chinese supremacy for decades?

Of course, Taiwan is kind of protected by the US, the dominant superpower of the time. But they are struggling, looking weak. If China manages to take Taiwan, they will not only have removed that thorn in their side, they will also have punched the biggest, meanest kid on the block on the nose and gotten away with it.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 18 hours ago

Of course, Taiwan is kind of protected by the US, the dominant superpower of the time. But they are struggling, looking weak.

Keep in mind that China is struggling as well. Their debt problems are several times worse than the US, so they could suffer a major recession within the next few years if a significant disruption like war happens.