this post was submitted on 21 Jun 2024
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The Israeli military says its Northern Command has approved operational plans for war with Lebanon.

Israel is ready for an “all-out war” in Lebanon and has plans approved for an offensive targeting Hezbollah, officials have said.

Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in border fighting since shortly after the start of the war on Gaza, following the October 7 attacks on Israel. The confrontation is increasingly expanding, with both sides saying they are ready to go to war.

More than 400 people have been killed in Lebanon, including journalists and paramedics, over the past eight months, with 25 deaths in Israel. At least 90,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon, and more than 60,000 have been forced from their homes in northern Israel.

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[–] [email protected] 174 points 1 year ago (40 children)

That's because Netanyahu needs a forever war to keep his dictatorship. That's always what this has been about.

[–] [email protected] 57 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Forever wars only work against enemies that can't really do anything back.

Israel is about to enter the 'find out' stage.

[–] [email protected] 68 points 1 year ago (1 children)

They will end up finding out that the US will absolutely have their back despite the genocide of Palestinians so that the US can keep their middle east ally. You know, like that one asshole who always starts fights because their big friends help out when they start getting their ass kicked.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 year ago (1 children)

If they do, that will very likely pull in Iran, Russia, and now with the recent agreement, possibly North Korea.

The US is not as big as they were in the late nineties and early aughts.

[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 year ago (10 children)

The US navy has almost as many aircraft as all of Russia.

The US Army has more aircraft than all of Russia.

The US Airforce has more aircraft than the US navy and army.

That’s just planes and helicopters.

If you think any of the countries you talked about are a serious threat to the US outside of nuclear war, then you’re sorely mistaken about how truly insane US defense spending is.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 year ago

That's true, but I think what recent conflicts have demonstrated is that total firepower isn't everything. Ukraine was significantly outmatched by Russia and hung on, even before western weapons shipments. Hamas, estimated at something like 30k fighters strong and armed with small arms and light rockets/artillery, continues to fight effectively against the US armed IDF. Then we have historical examples like the US war in Vietnam, or the US failures to fight insurgents in Iraq (with the tide only changing after deliberate hearts and minds political/social strategy).

The whole "we have a lot of planes" thing is just defense contractor marketing. How that translates on the battlefield, especially when the civilian population despises you, is not great.

A war like that would devestate Isreal and drag the US into a true quagmire. It would sap a tremendous amount of resources and leave the US more vulnerable to the china's and Russias of the world.

Not to mention our good old buddy international terrorism, which Bidens unwavering support of Bibi is already making us a prime target for. Shit would be fucked.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

The scenario I described is World War 3.

That what Bibi, and Biden with his unwavering support, are playing with.

then you’re sorely mistaken about how truly insane US defense spending is.

NevermindNoMind already made this point to you but it bears repeating, Money spent doesn't translate into combat effectiveness. In fact, it tends to actually go against it. EDIT: Or, more specifically, money spent on individual weapon systems. The best weapon is the cheap one that can be mass produced, even if there are better weapon systems.

Ansarallah has been clear that part of their missile strategy is to eat into our budgets. They've been winning by that strategy. The total cost of their drones/missiles used against the US was in the several hundred thousand range, and the estimate for the missile defense ammo the US has used is around a billion dollars, and that was several months ago. Even the US can't compete with that cost disparity.

Secondly, it doesn't matter how many ships you have if you can't resupply them with ammo. America outsourced its production capabilities. It didn't outsource its weapon production facilities, but we can't convert the facilities we don't have any more to support increased ammo production, and we don't have enough weapons factories to supply the requisite ammo for continued operations in a modern war.

Third, your usage of "just planes and helicopters" is stupid beyond description. I am not willing to agree with you that the US will have air superiority in all theaters, which sadly is what its military doctrine both requires and assumes. (Which, by the by, is why the NATO trained Ukrainians did so poorly with their spring offensive. It's not their fault they couldn't use tactics that assume air superiority that they didn't have, but jesus the NATO people switched to racism right quick to explain the failure.) However, other countries doctrine assumes that air superiority won't be theirs.

Iran, for example, assumes they won't have air superiority from the start and so they spent most of their engineering time on missile technology. The Russians have tried to compete with their aircraft, but focused mainly on their G2A anti-air defenses. Now, even with Syria and Ukraine, there still isn't a lot of info on the effectiveness of the S400 in against the American Airforce.

It also doesn't account for the huge disparity in drone deployment capability which is frankly the future of the next war. And the US fails at this completely. The two main US drones cost 30 and 40 million a piece when the name of the game here is CHEAP. Frankly, Iran and now Russia beat our pants off on this topic. Even Hezbollah and Ansarallah have confirmed US drone kills. This is the scariest part. Culturally in the American military right now, being involved with drones was not seen as a career advancer, and definitely not something you'd want to put money into serious research.

This is more than I meant to write in response to a comment that basically amounts to a middle-schooler pounding their chest while screaming "My daddy can beat up your daddy" so I'm going to end it here.

If you think money translates to military readiness and sound doctrine, then you're not thinking about this very hard at all.

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[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 year ago (4 children)

I'm curious what you mean. Hasn't Hezbollah been targeting Israel for decades? There's already been the South Lebanon Conflict and the 2008 Lebanon War.

What will they find out that they didn't already know?

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I think if they do a full-blown invasion, they’ll find out that Hezbollah (and quite possibly the regular Lebanese military) is a much bigger, experienced, and sophisticated enemy than Hamas. Also, an invasion of Lebanon could easily attract third parties (like Syria-based militias or even other countries).

If it’s a limited, restrained operation to create a buffer zone, it might not lead to escalation. There’s apparently a peace deal on the table that would accomplish just that but Hezbollah wants Israel to agree to the “ceasefire for hostages” deal in Gaza first.

But let’s not forget that Netanyahu is going to jail on corruption charges as soon as he isn’t prime minister. He’s alienated everyone except the extremist parties on the right so, ultimately, they’ll be able to control policy just by threatening to leave the fragile coalition government. So, I don’t know if I’d bet on a limited, restrained operation.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 year ago

I think if they do a full-blown invasion, they’ll find out that Hezbollah (and quite possibly the regular Lebanese military) is a much bigger, experienced, and sophisticated (...)

Oh they know well. Israel has invaded Lebanon twice (at least?) and both times they failed in a humiliating way.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 year ago (1 children)

You need to understand that most people's understanding of the conflicts in the Middle East started on October 7, 2023.

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Hasn’t Hezbollah been targeting Israel for decades?

It's just cute how much you left out, there, as if that's the only thing that's been going on.

"You see they hit us then we hit them. Then we hit them and they hit us, man. It's like a war, ya know what I'm sayin'" -- Ice-T

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 year ago

The discussion was specifically about what Hezbollah would do to Israel in a new war and not how fault should be parcelled out for their long-running conflict.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

The situation is not static at all.

Hezbollah has significantly improved upon their capabilities during that time period. Also, as a corollary to this, weapons technology in general has significantly advanced in a form that brings various capabilities to state actors that didn't use to have the tech or financial base to support them.

Guidance systems, avionics, electronics, and drones are changing the face of warfare in a way that removes a lot of the tech advantages rich nations had over poorer nations. But, the richer nations (And this isn't just about Israel, but most of the western states) are sticking their heads in their sand because their weapons manufactures are used to being used more for laundering tax payer money to the right people then for making great weapons. The main drones for the US cost between 30-40 million EACH!

Furthermore, Israel is going through all of the copium that settler colonialist societies go through when their martial superiority is starting to come into question. They clutch harder to their beliefs that make them feel secure. Israel withdrew in 2006 and declared themselves victors when it was obvious that they were not victors at all. Now, that is all that Israel remembers about 2006. That they won. That is what they truly believe.

There are a lot of delusions that are about to break here. That is why I say that if they try with Hezbollah, that it will be a 'Find Out' stage.

EDIT: Also, people tend to use the wrong measurement for what they consider to make an army strong. One of the most important factors is a willingness for a military to take causalities. There are very few armies stronger than Hezbollah by this measurement, whereas Israel has been very weak on this front since the early 2000's. Having a conscript army will do that.

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[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 year ago

That’s always what this has been about.

I would add Zionist settler colonialism in the mix

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[–] [email protected] 72 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Israel continues to get worse and worse.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 year ago (5 children)

If someone could just figure out a way to point them at Russia, rather than picking fights with everyone else.

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[–] [email protected] 60 points 1 year ago (2 children)

They're doing the whole Nazi Germany playbook now

A two front war is never a good idea

[–] [email protected] 48 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (2 children)

A two front war is never a good idea

Not too sure tho, how bombing and starving civilians including children on a strip of land for 8-9 months qualifies as war, now that I think about it.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago

Fake news refuses to use the proper term...

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[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 year ago

No, now they're going to actually go to war instead of bombing defenseless children. The other front would be Egypt if Sisi hadn't sold his soul to Uncle Sam.

[–] [email protected] 58 points 1 year ago (3 children)

next up, invade random countries... don't mind me I'm just going through Hitler's to-do list.

[–] [email protected] 27 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Doing a Blitzkreg to win some Lebensraum and no I don't understand why this would be problematic.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago (1 children)

These propaganda memes are getting more and more bizarre. This is the "Promised Land" meme that from I can tell originated from a faked photo of a patch on an Israeli soldier a few weeks ago.

Israel simply doesn't have the capability to take that amount of territory, much less hold it. And see that blue on the Sinai peninsula? Israel actually controlled that in the past. They returned it to Egypt when they made peace in the 70s.

This is the silliest anti-Israel meme yet. Try harder next time.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 year ago

While this meme/picture is definitely exaggerated, the expansion of Israel far beyond its current borders is a political position held by members of the current government. It originates from early Zionist militias that aspired to capture these widespread borders.

It even caused an international incident some time ago. https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-seeks-to-calm-waters-with-jordan-after-racist-extremist-speech-by-smotrich/

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago

The Südetenland is already waiting to be liberated and fulfill their genetic destiny!

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Doesn’t Lebanon shoot rockets at Israel? Like pretty frequently?

[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Yeah, while Israel has been invading and violating Lebanon's airspace for much longer than they've been shooting rockets.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 year ago (1 children)

So not really “invading random countries” like the person I responded to said, right? They’ve been fighting

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Yeah Israel should have been sanctioned a long time ago for their airspace invasions. If they proceed with a land invasion, they should be embargoed by the world.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago (1 children)

By your logic though, Taiwan should be launching rockets into China because China regularly violates their airspace. It’s just not how normal countries interact with each other man, these people are psychos. Both sides

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago (3 children)

I just said Israel should be sanctioned. I haven't made one comment on whether the rockets were good or bad.

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Are people actually making excuses for Hezbollah?

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Are people actually making excuses for Israel?

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago (2 children)

You can't really think of Lebanon as a country at this time. It's a territory where several groups hold various amounts of power. Hzbollah is one of those groups. The "government", or what passes for it is another.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Palestine isn't a country. Lebanon isn't a country. Excited to see Syria, Egypt, and Jordan suffer the same fate.

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[–] [email protected] 45 points 1 year ago

Can we please stop giving this insane bloodthirsty man and his sidekicks weapons and intelligence support?

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Actual headline: America is ready for an all out war with Lebanon

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 year ago (10 children)

US has been trying to prevent an Israeli-Hezbollah war. Even al Jazeera says this in the third sentence in the linked article.

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[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 year ago

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Syria%E2%80%93Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_coalition

If the US joins Israel, that pulls in Russia, Iran, Syria, Iraq, and since Russia and NK just did their deal. Likely NK as well.

AIPAC has bought off enough of both sides of the aisle, that our politicians will say we join.

This ain't the same WW3 shit we've been hearing about since the 50s. This shit can pop off at any moment.

Israel isn't acting rationally and Biden has repeatedly said he will support them under any possible circumstances. So what the fuck is going to happen?

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Getting the bighead from all the big US funds they have to play with

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Totally worth not having health care so we can support Israel starting wars around the Middle East.
-_-

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Seriously, what tf are they thinking?

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Israel: History repeats itself, it has been a quite 100 years, time for another of those great wars, World War, I think ot was called.

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Israel isn't going to stop are they?

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 year ago

Oh great. That will help with everything.

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