Technology

The answer is that it's all about "growth". The fetishization of shareholders has reached its logical conclusion, and now the only value companies have is in growth. Not profit, not stability, not a reliable customer base or a product people will want. The only thing that matters is if you can make your share price increase faster than the interest on a bond (which is pretty high right now).

To make share price go up like that, you have to do one of two things; show that you're bringing in new customers, or show that you can make your existing customers pay more.

For the big tech companies, there are no new customers left. The whole planet is online. Everyone who wants to use their services is using their services. So they have to find new things to sell instead.

And that's what "AI" looked like it was going to be. LLMs burst onto the scene promising to replace entire industries, entire workforces. Huge new opportunities for growth. Lacking anything else, big tech went in HARD on this, throwing untold billions at partnerships, acquisitions, and infrastructure.

And now they have to show investors that it was worth it. Which means they have to produce metrics that show people are paying for, or might pay for, AI flavoured products. That's why they're shoving it into everything they can. If they put AI in notepad then they can claim that every time you open notepad you're "engaging" with one of their AI products. If they put Recall on your PC, every Windows user becomes an AI user. Google can now claim that every search is an AI interaction because of the bad summary that no one reads. The point is to show "engagement", "interest", which they can then use to promise that down the line huge piles of money will fall out of this pinata.

The hype is all artificial. They need to hype these products so that people will pay attention to them, because they need to keep pretending that their massive investments got them in on the ground floor of a trillion dollar industry, and weren't just them setting huge piles of money on fire.

The part that is over hyped is companies trying to jump the gun and wholesale replace workers with unproven AI substitutes. And of course the companies who try to shove AI where it doesn't really fit, like AI enabled fridges and toasters.

This is literally the hype. This is the hype that is dying and needs to die. Because generative AI is a tool with fairly specific uses. But it is being marketed by literally everyone who has it as General AI that can "DO ALL THE THINGS!" which it's not and never will be.

Even if they plateaued in place where they are right now it would lead to major shakeups in humanity's current workflow

Like which one? Because it's now 2 years we have chatGPT and already quite a lot of (good?) models. Which shakeup do you think is happening or going to happen?

Computers have always been good at pattern recognition. This isn't new. LLM are not a type of actual AI. They are programs capable of recognizing patterns and Loosely reproducing them in semi randomized ways. The reason these so-called generative AI Solutions have trouble generating the right number of fingers. Is not only because they have no idea how many fingers a person is supposed to have. They have no idea what a finger is.

The same goes for code completion. They will just generate something that fills the pattern they're told to look for. It doesn't matter if it's right or wrong. Because they have no concept of what is right or wrong Beyond fitting the pattern. Not to mention that we've had code completion software for over a decade at this point. Llms do it less efficiently and less reliably. The only upside of them is that sometimes they can recognize and suggest a pattern that those programming the other coding helpers might have missed. Outside of that. Such as generating act like whole blocks of code or even entire programs. You can't even get an llm to reliably spit out a hello world program.

This is easy to say about the output of AIs.... if you don't check their work.

Alas, checking for accuracy these days seems to be considered old fogey stuff.

Goldman Sachs, quote from the article:

“AI technology is exceptionally expensive, and to justify those costs, the technology must be able to solve complex problems, which it isn’t designed to do.”

Generative AI can indeed do impressive things from a technical standpoint, but not enough revenue has been generated so far to offset the enormous costs. Like for other technologies, It might just take time (remember how many billions Amazon burned before turning into a cash-generating machine? And Uber has also just started turning some profit) + a great deal of enshittification once more people and companies are dependent. Or it might just be a bubble.

As humans we're not great at predicting these things including of course me. My personal prediction? A few companies will make money, especially the ones that start selling AI as a service at increasingly high costs, many others will fail and both AI enthusiasts and detractors will claim they were right all along.

Though the image generators are actually good. The visual arts will never be the same after this

Eh, my best coworker is an LLM. Full of shit, like the rest of them, but always available and willing to help out.

"Confidently incorrect" I think describes a lot of AI aficionados.

Quantum! don't forget quantum, you filthy peasant.

Models are not improving, companies are still largely (massively) unprofitable, the tech has a very high environmental impact (and demand) and not a solid business case has been found so far (despite very large investments) after 2 years.

That AI isn't going anywhere is possible, but LLM-based tools might also simply follow crypto, VR, metaverses and the other tech "revolutions" that were just hyped and that ended nowhere. I can't say it will go one way or another, but I disagree with you about "adjustment period". I think generative AI is cool and fun, but it's a toy. If companies don't make money with it, they will eventually stop investing into it.

Also

Today’s hype will have lasting effects that constrain tomorrow’s possibilities

Is absolutely true. Wasting capital (human and economic) on something means that it won't be used for something else instead. This is especially true now that it's so hard to get investments for any other business. If all the money right now goes into AI, and IF this turns out to be just hype, we just collectively lost 2, 4, 10 years of research and investments on other areas (for example, environment protection). I am really curious about what makes you think that that sentence is false and stupid.

It's fucking fantastic news, tbh.

Here's my take, let them dismiss it.

Let em! Remember Bitcoin at $15k after 2019?

Let em! And it's justified! If Ai isn't important right now, then why should its price be inflated to oblivion? Let it fall. Good! Lower prices for those of us that do see the value down the road.

That's how speculative investment works. In no way is this bad. Are sales bad? Sit back and enjoy the show.

Just copy and paste [student personal data] into [3rd parties database]

Yeah, that's a problem, especially in Europe. Im unsure about US, but it's definitely a breach of GDPR.

ChatGPT is basically like a really good intern, and I use it heavily that way. I run literally every email through it and say "respond to so and so, say xyz" and then maybe a little refining, copy paste, done.

The other day, my boss sent me an excel file with a shitload of data in it that he wanted me to analyze some such way. I just copy pasted it into gpt and asked it, and it spit out the correct response. Then my boss asked me to do something else that required a bit of excel finagling that I didn't really know how to do, so i asked gpt, and it told me the formula, which worked immediately first try.

So basically it helps me accomplish tasks in seconds that previously would've taken hours. If anything, I think markets are currently undervalued, because remarkably, fucking NONE of my colleagues or friends are using it at all yet. Once there's widespread adoption, which will pretty much have to happen if anyone wants to stay competitive once it gains more traction, look out...

Yeah, and Wikipedia is one of the most useful sites on the net, but it didn't exactly result in the entire web becoming crowdsourced.

The poem about AI that often gets posted says "What are you trying to avoid? The living [of a life]?"

And yeah, that's what it's for, dodging shit you don't want to do. I gotta produce some useless bullshit that no one's going to read or care about: AI.

I don't even mind AI art for things like LinkedIn posts, blogs like "What is warehouse management?" or "Top 10 finance trends in 2025" - SEO spam that no human will read. No one wants to write it, read it, or care about it- its just a x kb file to tell Google to look here.

Those pupils will really thank you when they grow up and there isn't enough fresh water because all the data centres are using it up far faster than it can be replenished.

https://utulsa.edu/news/data-centers-draining-resources-in-water-stressed-communities/

It's a bubble because OpenAI spend $2.35 for every $1.00 they make. Yes, you're mathing right, that is a net loss.

It's a bubble because all of the big players in AI development agree that future models will cost exponentially more money to train, for incremental gains. That means there is no path forward that doesn't intensely amplify the unprofitability of an already deeply unprofitable industry.

It's a bubble because newer models with better capabilities only cost more and more to run.

It's a bubble because as far as anyone knows there will never be a solution to the hallucination problem.

It's a bubble because despite investments treating it as a trillion dollar industry, no one has yet figured out a trillion dollar problem that AI can solve.

You're trying on a new top of the line VR headset and saying "Wow, this is incredible, how can anyone say this is a bubble?" Its not about how cool the tech is in isolation, it's about its potential to effect widespread change. Facebook went in hard on VR, imagining a future where everyone worked from home while wearing VR headsets. But what they got was an expensive toy that only had niche uses.

AI performs do well on certain coding tasks because a lot of the individual problems that make up a particular piece of software have already been solved. It's standard practice to design programs as individual units, each of which performs the smallest task possible, and which can then be assembled to complete more complex tasks. This fits very well into the LLM model of assembling pieces into their most likely expected configurations. But it cannot create truly novel code, except by a kind of trial and error mutation process. It cannot problem solve. It cannot identify a users needs and come up with ideal solutions to them. It cannot innovate.

This means that, at best, genAI in the software world becomes a tool for producing individual code elements, guided and shepherded by experienced programmers. It does not replace the software industry, merely augments it, and it does so at a cost that many companies simply may not feel is worth paying.

And that's its best case scenario. In every other industry AI has been a spectacular failure. But it's being invested in as if it will be a technological reckoning for every form of intellectual labour on earth. That is the absolute definition of a bubble.

o3 made the high score on ARC through brute force, not by being good. To raise the score from 75% to 87% required 175 times more computing power, but exactly stunning returns.

Your example is strange because, as far as I know, GPTs aren't economical either.