this post was submitted on 09 Mar 2025
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[–] [email protected] 64 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (4 children)

The coffee price hikes have stemmed from lower production in important coffee growing regions, particularly in top grower Brazil, reducing the availability of beans.

That's the closest I could find in the article as to a reason. It'd be nice to know if it was just a bad year or if this is going to be a permanent challenge going forward due to climate change or some other factors.

[–] [email protected] 45 points 1 week ago (6 children)

Coffee is quite sensitive to environmental factors and only grows in certain specific regions as a result. Those factors are being upended by climate change. Coffee is going to very rapidly become a luxury product.

Billionaires don't care. Twenty dollars or two dollars for a cup is effectively the same price to them; insignificant. It's the rest of us that get fucked.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

Except we are nowhere near a situation like that. Articles like this don't tell the actual prices because they are so small people might start questioning why they pay so much for coffee.

The poll had a median forecast for arabica prices at the end of 2025 of $2.95 per pound, a drop of 30% from Wednesday's close and a loss of 6% from end-2024.

$3 per pound - $6 per kilo. Or to put it in another way, 4.8 cents per shot of espresso, two of which go in a 16 oz Starbucks latte that costs you $5.75, which would be enough money to buy 120 shots worth of bulk arabica.

If that goes up by 7% or 70% or 700%, the cost of that latte should hardly change.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (2 children)

Logistics cost money

Shucking and processing the beans costs money

Roasting the beans costs money

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (3 children)

Exactly. And all of those stay the exact same price even if raw coffee price increases, meaning the price of a ready made cup of coffee hardly changes as the actual raw bulk coffee is only 1/60th of the total price of a starbucks latte.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago (1 children)

How about this explanation:

There is a reduced supply of coffee beans. Let's say 30%. This requires that 30% of customers have to be priced out of the market.

If the coffee shop owners only increase the price by several cents then the demand stays the same. They have to fight for coffee beans which drives up their costs step by step.

However, if they increase the price in advance, and far more than necessary right from the start, then the reduced demand matches the available supply and the value of the coffee beans roughly remains the same which allows them to profit from most of the price hike.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 week ago (4 children)

There is a reduced supply of coffee beans. Let’s say 30%. This requires that 30% of customers have to be priced out of the market.

this is fiction writing. you are literally making that up

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago

You're forgetting the most obvious factor: charge the most people are willing to pay.

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[–] [email protected] 24 points 1 week ago (2 children)

From what I've heard this is largely due to bad weather due to climate change, as I understand it, we should not expect coffee prices to ever go back to where they were.
For the past 4-5 years it seems prices have only gone up here. It's more than triple now of what it used to be before Covid, and that's only 5 years!

But I'm not an expert, this is just what I've been seeing as a heavy coffee drinker in the supermarket, and what I've gathered from short news tid-bits.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Pretty much. I watched my favorite coffee hut (literally a hut that you drive up to) go from $3 large like 5 years ago to $4, then within a year hit $5. At that point, I stopped going, although funny enough, i did go there today since it was convenient and it's now $5.50... I laughed and said yeah I'm definitely done now. As much as I like coffee, it's now a high-end luxury item that I can no longer afford even occasionally due to everything else raising as well.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago

As much as I like coffee, it’s now a high-end luxury item that I can no longer afford even occasionally due to everything else raising as well.

You could always make it yourself. Although caffeine pills are the cheapest way to go if it's really caffeine you're after.

Paying $3 for a drink was always a scam. Paying $5 is just like getting ripped off by a drug dealer while thinking you're getting the hook up. Complete insanity.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago (2 children)

My ground coffee has gone up about 20-30% over the past 2 years. This is just based on memory and not an exact calculation. It’s possible, I’ve misremembered the old price slightly, but either way it has gone up.

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Coffee can be a pain to grow. As someone else mentioned, you have to have the right environment (rain, sunshine, soil, etc).

Adding to this is that it’s easier to grow other things that are in just as much demand. Vietnam has switched to growing durian fruit — less fussy and makes them just as much money.

https://www.itv.com/news/2024-09-18/why-the-worlds-smelliest-fruit-is-making-your-coffee-more-expensive

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 week ago

Coffee is also quite carbon intensive.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 week ago

It's also due to very bad weather/floods in the second largest producer, Vietnam.

And since extreme weather events are increasing in intensity and frequency, it's not going to get better (as a trend at least).

[–] [email protected] 62 points 1 week ago (2 children)

First eggs, now coffee?

Man, my breakfast is getting real slim nowadays.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (2 children)

It's like those people saying quit your every day coffee/breakfast/lunch/cigarette and you will afford a house.

[–] And009 11 points 1 week ago

Finally, housing issues solved

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 week ago

Quit your house so you can afford instant coffee.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Time to start the french special: bred, butter, jam and a cigarette.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago (1 children)

With these tobacco prices??

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago (1 children)

It's $46USD for a 25 pack of Winnie Blues in Australia right now.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Holy shit! At that point, you could probably turn a profit growing shitty tobacco in a greenhouse and selling it black market.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 week ago (1 children)

The black market is bigger than the legitimate market. It's out of control.

We even effectively banned vapes. They can only be legally dispensed by a pharmacy, and the pharmacists want nothing to do with it.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Crazy. That's effectively prohibition, and we all know what that does to black and grey markets.

I have given up on trying to fight my nicotine addiction. Vape with homemade liquid because I'm cheap and I want to know what's in it. Smoke pipes and occasionally a cigar as I really love tobacco. May grow my own tobacco at some point just to play with it. (From the US)

Anyhow, potato vines contain useful amounts of nicotine that can be extracted and used in e-liquid. Atomizers can be easily made from nichrome wire. If you can't get it direct, guitar strings can be a source of wire after burn off. Vegetable glycerin and propylene glycol are easy to get anywhere.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 week ago

Atomizers can be easily made from nichrome wire. If you can't get it direct, guitar strings can be a source of wire after burn off.

This is the kind of useful information I would expect from someone with handle like @[email protected].

But seriously, I cannot believe how much those prices are in Oz for cigarettes.

[–] [email protected] 41 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Looking forward to price hikes far beyond the actual cost to middlemen. The eggification of another good.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

Already happened to chocolate. Raw cocoa is currently around 10% more expensive than it was at the same time last year - but chocolate products at retailers has shot up 40% or more. Including brands where cocoa isn't the dominant component ingredient like milk chocolate.

Yet businesses like Lindt are celebrating a 7.8% increase in sales... Make it make sense to me cos I buy far less now. Who are the people who see these increasing prices and buy more 🤡

Source data: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cocoa

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Decades ago, in undergrad, I wrote a paper on recessions and the effects on everyday items. Oddly enough, the less money people have, the more likely that they will spend a tiny amount on luxury goods like chocolates. You add up all those people who buy small boxes of chocolates when they normally wouldn't, and you've got your uptick in sales.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Yep, becomes a lot less important to save towards something when you have less than before. Those small luxuries are a mental health savior. That plus all the feel-good chemistry that happens with things like chocolate.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

There's no sense in saving towards something when it has suddenly become more than you could ever afford. Might as well buy some chocolate, it's good for morale.

The GF and I were looking at houses a while back but never pulled the trigger. Fast-forward 4 or 5 years and now we will literally never be able to afford a house because the prices are fucking outrageous. We've given up and just spend our money on decent food instead.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

Housing is so loony right now. I managed to borrow enough to make a downpayment before it got really crazy. For everyone's sake I hope the market gets flooded with affordable units and crashes the values back down to where they were in the 90s.

I'm sorry for all the single mortgage havers whose savings is all their house, but we're already better off than so many people just by paying the bank directly rather than a fucking land lord.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 week ago

Finally! I'm so glad people are starting to realize just how much we're getting fucked.

"Product costs 5% more to bring to market? Better increase the price by 20%!"

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 week ago

NNOOOOOOOO. Don't grind the market before you are ready to drink it! It'll lose all the freshness!!

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Fucking bummer. Everyone around me will crash and burn, and us non-coffee drinkers will rule the world!

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 week ago (4 children)

Lol, it only takes a few days to no longer have withdraw effects of caffeine. Some Ibuprofen and Tylenol will take care of the headache in the transition.

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Caffeine tablets it is then... Oh wait I bet those are going to be affected too. Fun times

[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 week ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 week ago

I picked the wrong week to quit methamphetamines.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 week ago

It’s kind of a conspiracy theory of mine, but I’m trying to wean myself off coffee because I expect a price hike to come sooner or later. The majority of the Western world can’t get through the day without it, and I expect most people will still pay for it even when the price goes up.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago (3 children)

Cut out the middle man. I just started roasting raw beans. Costs less than half as much as I was paying before and tastes better than I've ever had before.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 week ago (1 children)

You've only cut out the roaster, which does nothing to solve your supply issues.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

He may be referring to how coffee shops (even the small ones!) will raises prices higher than their increase in inventory costs.

Right now, since people know coffee is getting more expensive, coffee shops (even the small ones!) will use that alone as an excuse to charge higher prices.

Keep in mind, these businesses (even the small ones!) charge what you are willing and able to pay. They are there to maximize profit off of you. It's not about being your friend. It's not about being on the same side. To think otherwise is to be a naive child and useful idiot.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago

Global warming makes coffee harder to cultivate, that restricts the supply, hence the price hikes. I guess coffee is going to be a luxury item in the future.

While the world is focused on its own problems, far right populism, and what not, we are oversleeping a great opportunity to rein in global warming. With douchebags like Trump at the helm, the crisis is getting worse and worse. I guess the kids of our kids will read about this time in their history books and wonder how stupid and egocentric we were back then.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 week ago

Time for everyone here to research: Chickory. Alternative to coffee and you can grow it at home.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

I'm just glad I quit coffee a year ago. I've known for a long time that coffee prices have been held artificially low and could explode at any moment.

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