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Considering current polling, his current level of support is terrifyingly close to enough. If we don't want to face down four more years of Trump, Biden really needs a lot better campaigning than, "I'm not that guy." Sure, it's still early and the predictive power of polls at this stage isn't fantastic. But, it seems like a bad place to be starting from.
Every single day Biden continues to support genocide, the closer I get to not being able to vote for him. Among my friends, I'm the most harm reductionist telling people that when election day comes, we have to do what's best with the choice we have. But I'm starting to become viscerally disgusted at the idea of voting for Biden
And by not voting for Biden, how do you expect the issue you care about is going to be addressed by a Trump administration? I’m in my 50s and have never been a fan of Joe Biden or most of the “centrist” Democratic Party - but you can sure as hell believe I’ll be casting a vote for him in November.
I don't know man. I'm the one who makes this argument. I'll probably still vote Biden on election day, but I want to vomit at the thought of him after seeing him support this.
It's one thing when he is just useless at getting actual shit done. "Nothing will substantially change" is one thing. But if I'm starting to break down on this, then that makes me scared that we are truly fucked
Worst part is that Biden trusts that he can do whatever he wants with supporting genocide because Trump is his opponent. It's an extra 'fuck you' to all of us.
I’m 100% voting for Biden, as Trump will both destroy US democracy and put the final nail into our species dystopian coffin with both climate change and the further empowerment of the rich. But we may be fucked in the sense that I think Biden is too unpopular in a vacuum(as in separate from Trump) for most voters to get the numbers out. I deeply hope that I am wrong but each thing he does that is semi divisive, let alone everything involving Israel, it gets harder for me to believe he has the ability to engender any enthusiasm for him
I've gone from being unenthusiastic about Biden to actively hating/despising him. To be clear, there is absolutely no world in which I will despise him less than trump. It's one thing to try to get people enthused, it's another when you have to bank on fear of the worse guy.
If he had looked the other way for just a month or two, that'd still be bad but at least we could be like "well it was a complicated situation but he made the right decision". It's almost March and it was already an undeniable and unbearable tragedy by Halloween of last year. I think we extremely close to the point of no return.
This is what people trying to get Trump elected sound like.
LOL Trump is best friends with Netanyahu. Trump will want half of Gaza for himself!
This is like saying you're not going to vote for Biden because he's white. Or old. Or a capitalist. So is the other guy. There isn't another viable option. Trump has just as bad, if not a worse stance on Palestine, even provoking further conflict by moving the embassy during his tenure. You can't expect any US president to go to war with one of our only two legitimate allies in the region, but Biden's at least trying to broker a ceasefire for hostages.
We can only hope the people who said they wouldn't vote for him, due to having various final judgments against him, will have the conviction to hold to that claim.
Republicans will vote for him as long as he is the nominee, just like the last two elections.
It will be people (in a few key states) who refuse to vote for Biden due to purity testing or vote third party who put him in office if it happens.
That is how basically every election has worked for 30+ years. About 40% of people lean republican, 40% democrat, and 20% independent. Campaigns are mostly about getting 100% of your 40% to vote than winning independents or opponents.
Way less people are Republican, but only in pure numbers, which doesn't mean shit when you use the Electoral College (or have 2 senators per state regardless of population, for that matter). The only voters who actually matter for presidents are in the 5 or so states that don't always go red or blue.
We're in an era of populism and people are still trying to use the 2000s era to predict today.
He doesn't need to wide. his base, he just needs to motivate them. He need to to get more people excited about voting for him than Biden does those excited to vote Biden.
It's about turnout and driving a base. He's wiping the floor with Biden right now in the polls. No one is excited to vote Biden. It's not clear to me he even has a base. Instead taking heads are just trying to browbeat any one left of center into supporting Biden. It won't work at scale. Bidens got to do his own work there, because it's not currently Trump in office, it's Biden. Always harder for an incumbent, especially one who has become deeply unpopular with the coalition of voters that out him into office. No amount of blue no matter who is going to fix Biden as a candidate. Only Biden can do that.
Biden and the DNC know that
It's just what excites voters pisses off big money donors. And they picked the side neoliberals are always going to pick.
And they're hoping the threat of trump is enough to scare the serfs into line.
From a psychology perspective, it's a horrible plan. Especially after it has a 50% success rate in the last two elections. 2024 is a coin flip, and it's only because we're using trump as an excuse to run someone who's first presidential primary was 2 generations ago.
Seriously. A person born the year of Bidens first primary could safely be a grandparent for this one. In some red states, a great grandparent already.
He's never been a popular candidate, just had the luck of getting the primary handed to him and getting to face the literal worst president we've ever had the general.
It’s just what excites voters pisses off big money donors.
That is so basic, yet perfectly describes the situation.
We already hit the point decades ago where GOP can't win a federal election without anti democratic institutions like gerrymandering and the electoral college. It needs to be replaced with something actually functional in leading government in policy supporting constituents to compete with DNC. I detest political parties, but the only thing worse than many parties is one party.
I already know three people that said they are not voting. THREE, imagine how that translates to the wider population
It could even be as high as FOUR
CRAZY RIGHT. But seriously, three people that I personally know voted for Biden in 2020, now are thinking about not voting? That's a lot. It's also who these people are that gets me, they are your run of the mill city democrats. Not terminally online Twitter followers eating antibiden propaganda.
Dubious methodology says trump in trouble -> upvote
Dubious methodology says Biden in trouble -> downvote to oblivion.