davel

The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia has been driven by internal and external factors. Those factors constitute two blades of a scissors, and explaining the conflict requires taking account of both blades. The external factors center on post-Cold War U.S. geopolitical strategy and the concomitant U.S.-sponsored eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). That expansion can only be understood by reference to the fractures (internal factors) created by the Soviet Union’s disintegration. The external factors reveal the role of the United States, which is implicated to the point of provoking the conflict and obstructing peace.

The external and internal factors come into play at different moments and take time to work their full effect, which is why history is so important to understanding the conflict. The two sets of factors play out over a timeline involving three key events. The first is Ukraine’s declaration of independence from the Soviet Union in August 1991. The second is the Maidan coup in February 2014 that overthrew democratically elected Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych, who advocated Ukrainian autonomy and a nonaligned defense policy. The third is Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, launched on February 24, 2022. This timeline is dramatically revealing. The United States and its NATO allies view the conflict as beginning in February 2022 (though sometimes saying it began when Russia first “invaded” Ukraine with the annexation of Crimea in 2014—an event following the coup), enabling them to ignore history. Russia views the conflict, more straightforwardly, as beginning with the February 2014 coup, which makes history and the onset of Civil War in Ukraine central to its political position. That fundamental difference in understanding hinders the possibility of a negotiated political settlement, and it is very hard to see how the difference can be reconciled, as accounting for history (namely the coup and the subsequent Civil War) yields a completely different narrative.

The U.S./NATO denial of history and penchant for explaining the conflict as simply an outgrowth of the February 2022 Russian “invasion,” confers a significant advantage in the accompanying propaganda war. Having the conflict begin with Russia’s military intervention is a simple, easily understood narrative. The Western public has little knowledge of or interest in history; this is especially true in the United States on the other side of the Atlantic, which is completely isolated from the conflict. Nor is Western media interested in history, which is difficult to explain and a commercial dud given a disinterested public. That configuration helps explain the resilience in the West of the U.S./NATO narrative. However, whereas denial of history works well for propaganda, it does not serve the cause of either truth or peace, as it denies the causes of the conflict which must be addressed if peace is to prevail.

Understanding the Ukraine Conflict: Internal and External Drivers

The Western U.S./NATO account of the conflict is history-light. The little bit of history that has managed to surface acknowledges, and then dismisses, NATO’s post-1990 eastward expansion. A proper historical understanding begins with the breakup of the Soviet Union. That breakup is recounted by Vladislav Zubok in his book Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union. The collapse is critical because it created the terrain for conflict.

As noted above, the conflict can be understood via the metaphor of a scissors. One blade is the internal, conflict-prone environment created by the Soviet Union’s breakup. The other blade is the continuing intervention by the United States, including the external eastward expansion of NATO. Both blades are necessary for understanding the causes of the conflict, its gradual escalation, and its political intractability.

[…]

Despite the arduous efforts of Israeli censors to hide the devastation Iran inflicted on Israel with its barrage of ballistic missiles during the 12-Day War, information is emerging that destroys the myth that Israel had an impregnable air defense. The map at the head of this article reveals the sites targeted by Iran. Based on the videos of strikes in Haifa and Tel Aviv, I think this map accurately portrays the massive scale of the Iranian attack. For the first time in its history, Israel took a major beating.

About 11,000 news pieces were published around the world in 2024 by some of the most read and most watched news outlets claiming that droves of millionaires were fleeing countries in record numbers. This was a huge exodus, we were told, with economic consequences, and the root of it all was supposedly taxes on the super-rich. But here’s what all this media reporting left out, these record numbers of millionaires leaving represented just 0.2% of all millionaires. In other words, almost 100% of millionaires did not move to another country, yet somehow this was spun a full 180 into an exodus. So where does this story come from? Well, it’s based on a report published by a firm called Henley and Partners, which helps sell golden passports to the super rich. Golden passports were just ruled to be unlawful by the European Court of Justice, thanks to a challenge by the European Commission, which said golden passports impose a serious risk of corruption, money laundering, tax evasion. Our review of the Henley and Partners report shows that there were several issues with the report’s methodology, its sample and its reporting. But what the media reported and what governments listened to was a fiction, based on questionable data published by a firm that helps the super-rich buy their way out of rules that apply to everybody else. Scare stories like these are used to block the positive change people want.

Paywall bypass: https://archive.today/huHxi

The ministers attended an annual gathering of top defence officials of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation member states in the eastern seaside city of Qingdao. The China-led security bloc also includes Belarus, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Now in its 22nd edition, the meeting was hosted by China’s Defence Minister Dong Jun.

Paywall bypass: https://archive.ph/DkpPK

Iran’s Guardian Council has ratified a parliament-approved legislation to suspend Tehran’s cooperation with the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, after the war with Israel and the United States.

Iranian news outlets reported on Thursday that the appointed council, which has veto power over bills approved by lawmakers, found the parliament’s measure to “not to be in contradiction to the Islamic principles and the Constitution”.

Guardian Council spokesperson Hadi Tahan Nazif told the official state news agency, IRNA, that the government is now required to suspend cooperation with the IAEA for the “full respect for the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran”.

Nazif added that the decision was prompted by the “attacks … by the Zionist regime and the United States against peaceful nuclear facilities”.

The bill will be submitted to President Masoud Pezeshkian for final approval and would allow Iran “to benefit from all the entitlements specified under … the Non-Proliferation Treaty, especially with regard to uranium enrichment”, Nazif said.

According to Middle East Spectator, Pezeshkian has already signed it.