this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2025
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True if you believe strategic vote is a large proportion. I don't. I believe the majority of voters vote based on party leaders, past preferences, etc. I don't believe strategic vote can make up a 40% difference. I believe strategic vote shift to ONDP would mean PCs stay at 45% while OLP and ONDP get to something closer to 35% and 15%, or 30/20. The PCs still win, with higher margin. That's my guess. For the parties to switch positions in such riding, I believe it'll take significant campaigning by the ONDP candidate as well as Marit Stiles positioning herself as a significantly better leader than whoever heads the OLP, and clear, bold populist policies. If such a change occurs, the informed strategic vote will shift accordingly. If the polls in my riding showed 5-10% advantage for the ONDP I'd have voted for them.