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Yo, straight up, the Colorado river never sees the ocean. It is probably the most completely managed water source in the world. Any other country would take cutting off their water supply as an act of war, or at least a legendary diplomatic breach, because you're effectively sentencing people and crops to death. If there's anything that could actually start anew world war or civil war, water rights is among them. Probably the only thing stopping Mexico from declaring a hot war is, that the capacity of the American government to wage war is absolutely outrageous. Over the last 100 years, the government has basically remade itself to serve that end first, last, and middle to the detriment of all other concerns.
With the exception of the Gulf War, America hasn't been able to win one since WWII. America's so confident in the tech it's developed that its strategists can't figure out an end game to any conflict they've dragged the military into. Dumping money into the defense industry isn't the same as having an effective fighting force if its soldiers are demoralized with systemic neglect and shit pay. Sure we can carpet bomb the shit out of cities and place defensive points around oil wells, but that only makes the natives switch to guerilla tactics that can be very difficult to detect or counter.
By those metrics you would say the U.S. lost to Japan in WW2 then right? The U.S. hasn't faught a war to occupy land in a long time. Remember when they created a deck of cards with 52 faces on it when attacking Iraq and then killed 48 of them, they never wanted to occupy and inhabit Iraq, they wanted to make a point, and they did. Financially it was "huge" yet didn't so much as hurt the U.S. economy in a notable way (less than 2.5% income) Wealth distribution is/was a much bigger issue like many countries.