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Amazon's Project Kuiper secures 3 launches with SpaceX (www.aboutamazon.com)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Project Kuiper has contracted three Falcon 9 launches, and these missions are targeted to lift off beginning in mid-2025.

Wow, I'm honestly quite surprised that Amazon has made this move. Are they trying to protect against the possibility that none of Vulcan, New Glenn, or Ariane 6 will be flying regularly by 2025?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I thought they also bought out the rest of the Atlas Vs, but that only gets them so far.

I wonder how many of the 3 new rockets will launch more than 5 times in 2025. I guess I wouldn't bet on any? Maybe Vulcan?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Yeah, 9 Atlas Vs doesn't get far with 1600+ satellites.

I wonder how many of the 3 new rockets will launch more than 5 times in 2025. I guess I wouldn’t bet on any? Maybe Vulcan?

Barring some catastrophic failure, I'd be surprised if neither Vulcan nor Ariane 6 achieved 5 launches in 2025. They've both had fairly successful static fire campaigns, and are targeting Q4 of 2023 and Q2 of 2024, respectively. I'd be very surprised if New Glenn launched more than 5 times in 2025.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

Falcon 9, Atlas V, Ariane 5, and Delta IV couldn't get to 5 launches in year 2.

Of the 3, I have the most faith in ULA to make it happen because of their experience and schedule pressure. Retooling existing Delta production lines seems like it should reduce their mfg teething issues. The same logic should apply to Ariane 6, but they've barely been launching Ariane 5s for the last few years, so I'm not confident.