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this post was submitted on 26 Jan 2024
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Republicans: "We'd win a 2nd civil war, we have all the guns!"
Bitch, do you think your civilian small-arms could stand against the full military might of the federal government!? Not even saying it's a good thing...
Historically yes, an uprising of civilians has a great chance at asymmetrical warfare on their own turf.
You can’t destroy your own infrastructure like you can someone else’s.
Will they win? Almost certainly not.
Can they force some concessions? Probably
If they secdee it is not "your own infrastructure" for the main country anymore.
It is though, they will still want to just reconquer and reconcile
They'd pull punches but lets not kid ourselves, Texas is not going to last very long against checks notes the entire United States military
The Taliban did ok, Texans can probably do better than them
The Taliban didn't have their home base on American soil. They were a significant distance overseas which created a lot of logistical barriers.
It's the difference between walking next door to kill your neighbor and catching a flight to kill him while he's on vacation.
If you think Texans can't mount an insurgency that would turn extraordinarily bloody for both sides, you're crazy. A significant part of the military would switch sides too, and we'd have a full blown civil war on our hands.
"A significant part of the military would switch sides too" So you think a large portion of the military would casually commit treason? The Military is built on following orders even when you don't like them. Especially when you don't like them. A bunch of hics LARPing as guerrilla fighters on American soil are not going to stand very long, at all. The red hats are a good target from 30,000 feet.
Yes because a substantial portion of them are red hats.
Living in Virginia and seeing bumper stickers talking about "The Biden Crime family" and other nutjob bullshit, yes. They don't really hide their retardation. In fact, they go out of their way to advertise it.
I wouldn't have thought that many civilians would either but they did.
Civilians haven't been put through bootcamp to obey even if it's uncomfortable. To serve the country against enemies foreign and domestic.
Give them a little credit.
Honestly though, gutting the infra and starting from scratch would likely be the better choice in the end.
They wouldn't stand a chance. They're power grid is so brittle. The US military would destroy it probably within minutes of an actual war being started. The people who can't stand the heat or the cold (depending on the time of year) would turn on them so quickly.
Just like the south in the civil war, they don't have the infrastructure for the logistics needed to fight a war.
You know unless the struggle is within the us military or the military wont get involved
These aren't the Taliban. These are a bunch of obese losers with handguns. They have nothing once McDonalds pull out.
It wouldn't happen like that. We would have an insurgency and lots of terrorist attacks. You would have towns and areas that are under insurgent control, with reprisal killings at night. Shit like that. I can't tell you to take it seriously, but you ought to at least consider how it would actually look if it happened.
That doesn't mean I don't take it seriously. We already have electrical substations getting shot by "Y'all-Qaeda"...
Well even if they lose, I'm sure that won't be much comfort to the good people they kill along the way. I just don't think we should be glib at the thought of open civil conflict. Looking at it this way convinced me that I don't want to be without the means to defend myself and my loved ones in the event our "cold" civil war suddenly becomes "hot".
It really depends on what would be happening in the military and intelligence services.
I don't think people really understand just how much a civil conflict would be a war of information as opposed to a war of arms.
If things got bad enough domestically that laws like the Patriot Act were expanded and agencies that haven't been supposed to operate domestically suddenly could, and those agencies were still 100% under government control, you'd have vans (or simply drones) taking out domestic terrorists in the middle of the night right before the day they were supposed to organize to kill and terrorize their neighbors.
The US could become an almost unthinkable police state under the control of a government like China's or if we had a Stalin-esque administration.
This is the part that Y'all Queda don't fully grasp. They aren't hiding out in caves in Afghanistan or air gapped in Pakistan. The only thing keeping them safe from the monsters under their bed that they largely don't realize are there is the very government they think would be such a bright idea to try to overthrow. And if that government saw them as enough of an existential threat to unleash the monsters on them, well, they'd have quickly succeeded in overthrowing the US government in a sense, but wouldn't be around to see it.
"The government" isn't a monolith. It is made up of human beings with differing political opinions. US military assets are spread all around the country. US intelligence agencies are full of people that would prefer the far right to the far left. I think you are also overestimating the power of intelligence agencies.
The Taliban would like a word.
The Taliban had the advantage of logistics. Which we all know is important in war according to Sun Tzu.
It will be a whole lot different when they can fight on their own home turf, which they have been fortifying since whenever they arrived.
Lol. I understand its symbolism, but let's be real: they overwhelmed a building and barely clashed with poorly-staffed local police. In no reality were they in any way "close to overthrowing the government".
There's a pretty big difference between wanting to conquer/occupy a region and helping a local population police it. Plus, once government and social support for US presence in Afghanistan dropped, someone was going to control it.
It's not "my" federal military, and I'm not supporting them. But anyone who thinks they can win a war against the US military on US soil is out of their mind.
I highly doubt much of the US military would defect, they generally love the country more than any particular political ideology. So you'd have a likely highly motivated military with more than half of the public on their side.
Then again, if this was a coup situation, I'm guessing it would be a bit more difficult, since some of the military would be on the side of the challenger. But that wasn't what happened on Jan 6, Trump wasn't calling on the military to keep him in office, he merely refused to call in reinforcements to deal with the insurrectionists.
I'm not saying it couldn't happen here, I just think it would be incredibly difficult barring some kind of popular movement. And secession/insurrection isn't popular.
If it was the difference between keeping the union together and falling into anarchy/fascism, pretty motivated.
You provided the hypothetical. If my hometown was a hotbed of insurgents or something and it would be a strategic blow that would bring a swift conclusion to the Civil War, I wouldn't think too hard on it. I'd certainly need to know why though (I'm not interested in being involved in war crimes).
But I'll never be in that position. I'm past draft age, so I'd likely be defending my house, not bombing targets. But if somehow I was involved, I'd press the button if I was convinced it would target belligerents and end a lot of the fighting, hometown or not.
They were armed. Not all of them but they did have guns.
Interesting. If the rioters shot at the police, law enforcement would respond with deadly force. A lot of y'alqadas would also get shot by other rioters. It would be a one sided blood bath.
Eh, I'm guessing the VP would've stepped in if Trump didn't and we'd get the National Guard deployed.