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Carney’s Checkmate: How Canada's Quiet Bond Play Forced Trump to Drop Tariffs
(deanblundell.substack.com)
No need for AI slop imagery.
this post was submitted on 11 Apr 2025
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It literally only takes away from the article and the entire publication to me.
Yeah, I already have extreme hesitation over clicking any substack blog link. I won't click in anything with slop, so it seals the deal. Wish the mods gave a shit.
You've just proven that for you only the "cover image" is sufficient for judging the book.
I'm old: sometimes the cover misrepresents the book, & good books need to be read, no matter what the cover looks like.
_ /\ _
Sure, sometimes the cover misrepresents the book but AI slop cover suggests AI slop content. No thanks, will spend my time elsewhere.
Ai is the future
So are uninhabitable tropics. I'm allowed to hate capital for both
Apocalypse in [insert updated date]
Sure, Jan.
Jan heeft 5 appels, vermoordt Piet en neemt zijn 3 appels. Hoeveel appels heeft Jan nu?
Eén knuppel.
Interesting theory. Total absence of proof.
Does the theory fit the available facts? Yes.
Do the available facts prove the theory? Absolutely not.
Also the tariffs against Canada are still in place, leaving Canada in a relatively isolated position compared to a couple of days ago. That doesn't really fit the narrative.
Attributing all the merit to Carney in a time of election seems a bit… optimistic? No doubt he was an insider on this brilliant strategy but giving him the unshared paternity is a bit of a stretch.
Whoever came up with this first isn’t ultimately important : I will gladly vote for someone smart enough to understand the strategy and with the connections to push it and see it implemented. No other PM candidate can have me sleep at night with the trust that we try to protect our interest with the best strategy available for our limited ressources.
Also the “if the US won’t lead the world, we will” comment gave such a hopeful vibe, it reminded me of Obama or Jack Layton campaign style.
I think you underestimate Carney, dude is an absolute fiscal archmage.
He knows the levers to pull and buttons to press.
There's some older news from March that could be seen as supporting this ...
Canada Files to Sell USD Bonds, Size Undisclosed, Amid Concerns from Mark Carney Over Trade Tariffs
Canada syndicates dollar bond as Carney readies for stint as PM
Canada sells bonds in U.S. as investors shrug off trade war
He's also got some good will with other nations for helping them out.
Mark Carney’s ‘back of envelope’ idea paved way for Ireland to renegotiate bank debt (Archive link)
And another one from today ...
Freak sell-off of ‘safe haven’ US bonds raises fear that confidence in America is fading
A sound plan. An effective strategy that would give any president pause. However, they overlooked a few key details. While they were playing a master class in chess, Trump was at a checkers board playing roulette and shitting himself. By playing roulette I mean stock manipulation and insider trading while he sucked on checkers pieces and shat himself.
At a $1million dollar a plate dinner at his golf club.
Sounds like the kind of thing that happens when you have people in charge knowing there is more than tariffs in the policy tool box.
To be fair, Carney is an economist with a doctorate, the former governor of the bank of England and the bank of Canada. He's up against a "businessman" who couldn't run a casino profitably.
This was brilliantly managed by Canada, the EU, and Japan.
I would take this with a grain of salt. Here's an article claiming the contrary - Online posts claiming Canada 'offloading' $400 billion in U.S. bonds are false - although it is from March 21.
Any concrete proof this happened ?
Better take: Yesterday Trump Learned That Capital Is in Charge
I trust capital a lot more than I trust his base.
I'm brown, I got to run away from his baseball bat wielding base.
Capital can be reasoned with, inbred rednecks can't.
I don't understand how prices drop and interest rates rise as a consequence of nations selling bonds. Wouldn't prices only matter to the buyers and sellers of the bonds? And why would interest rates change?
In any case, if it gets the world to trust the USA much less, as we sadly very much deserve, I'm all for that.
Bonds offer fixed interest.
Let's say a $50 bond offers $5 dollar yield at maturity (10%).
If those that currently own bonds sell en masse, the bond becomes less valuable (let's say $40) but the yield is still $5.
Now the interest rate is 5/40 = 12.5%.
The 30 year treasury bond interest rate is closely tied to mortgage rates.
A higher bond interest rate makes it more expensive for businesses to borrow money.
If other countries sell off US bonds (which are purchased in US dollars), they flood the market with US dollars which ultimately diminishes the dollars value.
Trump and his ilk like to act like the US subsidizes many of its allies when that is very clearly an oversimplification. Many of the US's allies own US debt (in the form of bonds) because the US is an extremely reliable borrower. If those countries decided the US is not reliable enough to lend money to anymore, it would be extremely problematic for the American economy.
Tl; Dr: Canada, Japan and the EU could twist American home buyers and businesses by the balls by selling off bonds and, if they took it far enough, even devalue the US dollar. America spends a shit ton of borrowed money from its allies and even China.
I still don't understand why interest changes if it's a fixed interest rate. I get that a bond could be sold for a lower price than initial purchase price, but does the interest rate only apply to the most recent sale price of the bond?
The interest rate isn't fixed, the bond yield (in dollars) is fixed.
Its presented as a percentage interest rate which can be variable.
For example let's say you have a $1000 bond that pays a $50 dollar yield at maturity. The rate would be 5% (50/1000).
If the market is flooded with bonds, their value would decrease due to increased supply. Now that bond may only be worth $900 but still pays a fixed yield of $50. The interest you get paid in this scenario is now 900/50 = 5.5%
This is great if you are a lender. When you buy bonds you are essentially lending money the government and now your yield will be higher.
But many ordinary people are more often in the position of borrower. The interest rate for mortgages, car loans etc. are based off of bond rates. So if that rates goes up, many major purchases become more expensive over time. Small businesses are also heavily impacted by increased borrowing costs.
Generally, higher bond rates represent decreased confidence in a government entity's fiscal responsibility. When US federal bonds are sold off collectively, the rate goes up, signalling that investors have lost faith in the US government reliably paying back its debts.
I read that as Dr Canada at first