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Honestly asking: what other way would anyone suggest to bring back outsourced manufacturing jobs?
I’ve always heard broad public support on both sides of the aisle for bringing back those jobs. Wasn’t that always going to make things more expensive?
ETA: the downvotes lead me to believe a lot of y’all are caught up in the nationalism of the arguments, and refuse to consider the logistics of what you want. That goes for both Red MAGA wanting recklessly applied tariffs, and Blue MAGA wanting to start WW3 without any existing domestic production. Neither of you are thinking shit through.
I don't think there is any way to bring back those jobs. You guys are dreaming if you think you can just go back to an economy of the past.
The world has globalized, America can't just pretend it hasn't. Sure you can try and bring everything in house but by alienating allies there are lots of things you just can't get yourselves like many raw materials, and then you need to worry about exporting to actually bring money into your economy not just move it around in circles.
Plus, think about the logistics of that.
Goods produced in the US are categorically more expensive due to infrastructure, cost of living (and therefore wage expectations). If we could wave a magic wand to transplant an effective manufacturing facility from Pakistan and place it in rural Mississippi, hire Americans to do the work, and begin pumping out goods, the price to produce the goods would increase substantially.
Americans wouldn't be able to afford American made goods, which is true even now. Many Americans try to buy American "when possible", but cost quickly outweighs patriotism.
Your last paragraph is completely off course and backwards. Americans can’t afford American made goods precisely because of the outsourcing.
We’re proposing the Henry Ford model of paying your workers enough to be able to afford your products.
I agree with your position, but I’m struggling to reconcile that with the western push for war with global superpowers.
The pandemic temporarily crippled our economy with an interruption in shipping from China. How the hell are we planning to survive a hot war with China over Taiwan? They could defeat us without firing a single shot, by just refusing to ship here.
China also doesn't want to interrupt trade, it benefits them just as much as America, that's how. They won't invade Taiwan if there's a threat of war disrupting trade.
If you isolate the country from China too much then there is no benefit to China not invading. Globalization encourages peace because trade benefits all. Russia is suffering from all their sanctions now, they made a mistake thinking things would be over in a few days and people would get over it. Now they need to grit their teeth and pull through it. No one else wants to be Russia.
But China is much better positioned to outlast us during any interruption in trade for the same reason Russia has survived sanctions. They have the local production capacity and access to vast mineral & resource wealth that we can’t match.
Do they? As much as we like to play it quiet, the US exports a lot of food globally- China gets some $17b worth. Those tend to be perishable, so any hot war would have to be over quickly for China to come outahead, and any protracted war would see them need a new breadbasket eother domestic (reducing the industrial/military work pool), or international (which comes with the same risks they have now over US ties).
Right, but China is making broad new alliances every day across the globe, and we’ve spent the last century making enemies. So who’s better positioned to find alternative trade partners?
“Every time China visits, we get a hospital. Every Britain visits, we get a lecture.” And every time the US visits, we’re bringing barely concealed threats.
China isn't reliant on imported food, from the US or anywhere.
Why wouldn't China do exactly the same mistake in some point?
As European I would advice against the trust that the strong economic ties would keep totalitarians in check.
Plus there's no one saying you can't reduce reliance on specific countries like China. It is indeed dangerous to rely on any one country for too much. But if you spread it out to many countries and make sure to have some domestic supply for the most important things it would be fine.
At the moment Trump is targeting all countries, and many for no reason at all.
Cries in Canadian
I'm having a hard time following. How is the trade war going to lead to recovering outsourced jobs? Isn't it more likely to cause businesses to decrease their US operations?
The reason why jobs are outsourced is so companies can take advantage of cheaper labor and operation costs. Other than sending the us economy into a downward spiral that makes people want to work at slave level wages.... Not seeing the connection.
Which businesses? Foreign companies or local ones? Do you wish to have your money shipped overseas to purchase a vacuum cleaner? Or would you rather pay a bit more and have you hard earned dollars stay here in at home to help pay wages to your neighbors?
Who do you think transfers more money out of this country. The individual citizens buying vacuum cleaners, or corporations and billionaires who funneled their money to tax havens overseas. The only people harmed by the current economic policy are individuals trying to feed their families. Corporations are making more money than ever before. The wealthiest people in the world are more wealthy than they ever have been in recent history.
But you know what? Let's just put all the blame and responsibilty on the families. They should have bought their vacuum cleaners from cousin Billy down the street. The shitty economy is all their fault.
Do you hear how silly that sounds?
Well the people will still need that things that were imported, eventually you'll have to have an industry to cover that need. Picture this just an extreme case. All clothes are made abroad, imagine the tariff makes it "unbuyables". The people will still have the need for clothes so that creates the space for someone to start making clothes and sell them eventually making a textile industry.
Now the problem is this could take years the internal industry could be shit and a myriad of other problems that will surely will affect the poorest people the most. Economics explained has a good video on it you should check it.
Yes, and it will be expensive either way. When you buy a bag of imported tube socks for $5. You've got tube socks in a fair trade. When you pay $20, you have 4x less tube socks. The foreign seller can still buy US agriculture, resources, or houses, or bonds to lower our interest rates with the money without forcing you to overpay for tube socks. Globalization has multidirectional benefits.
Multidirectional benefits maybe, but most of the negative effects of shipping interruption are experienced by the receiver. You’re assuming any company has the capacity to make the socks here at all (to meet our needs). Production limits will cause most people to do without, regardless of if they could pay the increased cost.
How do you bring back outsourced jobs without a trade war? The capitalists will always prefer them outsourced, and a trade war is the only thing that’ll cut them off from that labor.
That position has a few inaccurate assumptions. The first being that the machines of capitalism, corporate entities, are tied to geographical regions. Today Apple could just move its base of operations to a country. Willing to have it. That isn't the US. All the company cares about is profit. It doesn't care about profit while having its base of operations in the United States. If the political climate is too unpredictable and the profits aren't easily obtainable, they're going to move to some place where the profits are more easily obtainable.
Another assumption you're making is that capitalism is the only solution. It really doesn't make sense addressing this assumption. If you believe one way, my words on the internet aren't going to make you believe it another way.
But another assumption implied in your thesis is that bringing back jobs is going to fix the problem. This conclusion fails to consider the fundamental nature of capitalism. Capitalism only prevails when there is constant growth of profit and more importantly for your position, growth of the consumer base. The reason why the United States were such successful Capitalists, was because of our booming population Post world war II. You had this constantly increasing stream of consumers that are necessary for the companies to make profit along with a stable and ever-growing manufacturing base. Those conditions don't currently exist in the United States.
To that end, the countries at an advantage for the next capitalistic explosion are those with huge populations like India and China. So trying to win the international battle of capitalism is a losing proposition for the United States in the foreseeable future.
Yeah this line of reasoning doesn't really gel with actual reality considering Trump is now talking about repealing the chip Act. He's not actually trying to bring back Manufacturing. Trump has never cared about that. He doesn't give a shit about Outsourcing manufacturing jobs and his boss Elon Musk certainly doesn't.
Probably with some sort of long term plan instead of randomly turning sweeping tariffs on and off.
Right. The issue is Trump doing it so recklessly.
But a lot of the people arguing against tariffs broadly seem to be telegraphing that they want to keep manufacturing outsourced indefinitely. Which is why I believe a lot of their tariff opposition is falling flat, and they’re not going to succeed in turning Red MAGA against Trump on this.
The thing is, with the way Dems were escalating on multiple war fronts, especially in regards to China, I don’t see how that’s compatible with a slow plan to bring back manufacturing. A short interruption in shipping during Covid brought our economy to its knees. What’s going to happen if neocons get their war for Taiwan?
Start by taxing the shit out of the CEOs and board of directors, with a mechanism built into the taxation so that any increase in their compensation is entirely offset by an increase in taxes. Then offer incentives to on-shore labor again.
This is the way.
Richard Nixon was great at weaponizing taxes against windfall profits to the benefit of the people. Also, if I recall correctly, this sort of taxation is partly why the US prospered so much from the 40's to the 60's.
It’s also a policy we are never going to get back in a post-Citizens United US. The people who wield the levers of power will never allow tax rates to get that high again.
You do it by incentivizing building factories, up to the point where a company can be competitive with those outsourced industries. Something kind of like the CHIPS act that Trump just axed. Random and blanket tariffs will not help. Tariffs can mainly only help prevent an industry from leaving. For example, we have huge tariffs on Chinese EVs because they would outcompete every US manufactured EV and we would lose those jobs.
The reality is that it's very difficult to take a centrist position here. Trump's tariffs make no sense. They will not bring back any jobs because no one is going to build a factory in the next 4 years if there's a chance the next president reverses Trump's decision.
It's also a bad move to tariff our main allies because not only does it make things more expensive for Americans, it erodes trust in our nation and destabilizes our position of dominance globally. In the eyes of the world, we've gone from stable and reliable to dangerous and unpredictable. It will take a lot more than 4 years to recover from that.
The big worry people have is a potential incoming economic crash. We're already dealing with a very weak labor market, uncomfortably high inflation, irrational stock valuations, and high housing prices. If now a huge wave of federal layoffs, which will likely result in instability of federal programs many Americans rely on, hits at the same time as what will essentially be artificially caused inflation through tariffs, it could send things into a downward spiral.
Well said and I agree :)
Maybe something like the chips act ... which he just repealed.
The chips act wasn’t going to bring jobs here. They were pairing it with a chip manufacturer’s visa, which would have imported all of the labor. If the companies built the factories at all, and didn’t just plan to pocket the dough, as they tend to do.
Lol. Please expand on this.
Canada isnt a significant threat to US manufacturing, so why the tariffs on Canada?
China would make sense, but Canada? Why?
Currency rate between US/China to drop 3x or more. That is also solution to US debt. Doubling down on dead ender energy will create high cost of living, not just from climate related insurance rates, but for expensive manufacturing energy, and need to pay high wages just to have home affordability.
Destroying NA auto industry will destroy it instead of auto companies writing off investments in Canada/Mexico to reinvest in US declining market that is smaller and uncompetitive. Massive auto subsidies would be needed, but still no export markets. Auto sector trade with Canada has a US surplus, with Canadians have specialized skill in parts making.
Manufacturing only makes sense if there is export potential for good products. Boeing and Caterpillar and US weapons getting blacklisted by world is bad. UAW cheering on Trump NA tariffs won't be forgotten. Blacklisting US agriculture means their share of massive subsidies.
The future (present in China) of manufacturing is robotics. There are plenty of jobs in constructing factories, but those are cheaper in other countries, and the best robot/manufacturing companies are in China. Trump has hinted at welcoming Chinese FDI in US manufacturing, but that would be factory construction jobs more than significant permanent manual labour jobs. UAW won't love that move.
He's out of line, but he's right.
Bring back jobs via tax incentives for being local and cutting tax breaks and bailouts for taking industry outside the US.
Really I’d support blocking market access at all for companies that outsource what could be done locally. But again, that will make things more expensive. I don’t know if there’s any way to get around that.
Yes, just the act of not producing products in countries with slave wages will make things more expensive.