this post was submitted on 19 Jul 2024
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I have no idea about William Hill. But the odds they describe sound about right to me, and the Nate Silver thing and the summary of Trump’s speech sound informative

inb4 BIDEN COPIUM HAHAHA etc and etc

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[–] [email protected] 214 points 10 months ago (4 children)

As encouraging as this may sound, it doesn't change anything. VOTE!

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[–] [email protected] 83 points 10 months ago (22 children)

I can't keep up. Is Trump losing or is Biden losing? It changes every 5 minutes.

[–] [email protected] 148 points 10 months ago (10 children)
[–] [email protected] 23 points 10 months ago

You got me there.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 10 months ago

Biden was and will be another good president. Stop allowing perfection to be the enemy of good.

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 10 months ago (1 children)

The answer is no one knows. If you care, vote and don't be complacent. Even if the news decides they think they know, they still don't know.

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[–] [email protected] 22 points 10 months ago (1 children)

They're competing to be unelectable and both winning.

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 10 months ago

The person losing more is the one that most recently opened their mouth and reminded voters who they are.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 10 months ago (2 children)

While it looks like half the country is split between this dipshits, in reality the majority of Americans agree on a shockingly high number of issues.

One of those issues is that both options are fucking awful, so who's "losing" harder is matter of witchcraft at the moment as things violently spiral into the ridiculous

[–] [email protected] 13 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

in reality the majority of Americans agree on a shockingly high number of issues.

And it's exactly why I say this every single day in some comment or another: I FUCKING HATE PROPAGANDISTS!!!

What you said is absolutely true and without the likes of Fucker Carlson, Sean Hamface, and Laura Inbread, we'd actually have some fucking semblance of unity and solidarity... But no, we get divide and conquer... Hate hate hate hate. Fox primetime is literally the "two minutes hate" from 1984 with an ever changing Goldstein.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 10 months ago

Biden is not really that awful as an option, as far as it goes. If he is in decline, he steps down after the win. It's not like Biden as a choice is comparable to donnie as a choice. They are night and day.

Now, trying to sell Biden as a product to "independents" (aka, the low info) because we sell politicians like the way we sell consumer goods like fizzy sugar water - that's not so great, since the bothsiderists keep acting like they are equally bad options.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 10 months ago

Just vote, volunteer to help give rides to people that wouldn't be able to vote without it. If everyone votes, there will be no chance for the racist rapist with 34 felonies that has said on record that he will be a dictator.

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[–] [email protected] 61 points 10 months ago

Not because he's a fascist child dilldler, because of his last speech.

[–] [email protected] 37 points 10 months ago (1 children)

The people that vote for trump don’t care.

Christ, they wear diapers and put fake ear bandages on. You think they give a damn about what’s actually right?

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[–] [email protected] 35 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (1 children)

Sorry but "BIDEN COPIUM HAHAHA" is right.

The William Hill odds of a Trump victory in November lengthened from 2/5 (71.4 percent) on Thursday before his convention address to 8/15 (65.2 percent) on Friday.

Donald Trump remains the overwhelming favorite

This same agency is saying Kamala Harris already has better odds of becoming President than Joe Biden does, even without a decision to resign from Biden.

[–] [email protected] 26 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (4 children)

Paying out higher (better) odds means you think they’re less likely to win

Edit: They were initially confused about how betting odds work, now they’re confused about how outcomes work.

William Hill is saying that Trump has a 65% chance to win, and the Democrat has roughly a 35% chance to win, and that Democrat is much more likely to be Kamala than Biden. There is absolutely no conditional involved in this odds presentation that would imply who has a better chance of beating Trump, as separated from the question of how likely the Democrats are to replace Biden.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

The article says P(Biden wins) < P(Harris wins). It isn't saying anything directly about P(Biden nominated) or P(Biden wins | Biden nominated) but it does imply that P(Biden nominated) is low.

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[–] [email protected] 33 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Look what was the big things coming out of the RNC.

  1. A bulldog
  2. The troll that protects the water hazards on Trump's courses (Kimberly Guilfoyle).
  3. The shocked remains of Florida pedo (Matt Gaetz).
  4. Racist, washed up, whats to fuck his daughter (Hogan).
  5. The UFC (Dana White).
  6. Shit kid rock song
  7. The most gay entrance you could do outside of Vegas or Broadway (Trump).

No one cares except MAGA country. It is boring.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Don't forget the crashing of Grindr in Milwaukee

[–] [email protected] 10 points 10 months ago (1 children)

That was probably the most exciting part of the week. Republicans being free to be themselves until the servers crashed.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 10 months ago (1 children)

It'd be funny if Grindr were to have some "leaks" and some of the hateful closet cases were outed.

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[–] [email protected] 20 points 10 months ago

CNN, NBC, and NPR are working overtime to glorify second coming of Lord Agolf Shitler

[–] [email protected] 20 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Newsweek seems to be the only publication making these claims. We’ve had some 2-3 weeks of Newsweek reportage of the Trump campaign floundering, its wheels falling off, and it circling the drain. Given Newsweek’s right-wing ownership and recently poor reputation for facts, it does feel like an op (perhaps to lull progressive campaigners into a false sense of security?)

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[–] [email protected] 11 points 10 months ago

Let's all hope that donnie's chances slump to zero.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 10 months ago

Polls mean nothing, vote as if the end of the human race was at hand.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 10 months ago (3 children)

So I think we are in a post 2016 news cycle so even though an assassination attempt is kind of historic, it’s not that big of a deal in 2024 when I’m sure next week we will get another huge earth shattering news. Maybe this time Putin finally croaks.

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 10 months ago (2 children)

Well that's a click bait title. It's based on betting markets that the head line completely misinterprets. The article itself admits Trump is still the favorite by far.

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 10 months ago

Over the same period, Biden's odds of securing reelection later this year deteriorated substantially to just 12/1 (7.7 percent) as the president faces pressure from within his own party to withdraw from the race.

Donald Trump remains the overwhelming favorite, but his odds have lengthened a touch – now 8/15 to return to the White House.

Yeah...

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