Not sure I really buy this. You have two choices: use it or don't. If you use it, it will either kill somebody or it won't; if you don't use it, it surely won't kill anybody. The probability of the former case is obviously extraordinarily low, but the probability of the latter causing a death is surely many times lower. The only thing that matters for morality IMO is the ratio of these probabilities, not the absolute difference.

Second one is also free cause we all would use it on Musk the moment the first one worked with Trump.

It could be 101: the first a surprise, the next 100 to establish a meaningful statistical correlation.

But like it would be so unbelievable that you can't just say, oh x died bc I wrote his name, that would be ludicrous. You need a decent sample size. I think I'd need 3 freebies. Before that i would not believe this notepad kills people.

Invariably I'd have drawn a comedy penis in there somewhere, and some poor lad somewhere would likely find his plonker refusing to work one night, or died with his old chap at full mast for maximum embarrassment.

It's still pretty unrealistic that anyone actually figured out how the deaths were occurring. Even if you thought "maybe it's magic" nobody else would take it seriously.

Iirc, you can write how the person behaves before death on the death note. You can easily write your own life fanfic and peaceful death there to ensure you don't get Raito'd or L'd in the meantime

Remember, when someone unexpectedly kicks the bucket. That leads to a power vaccuum. Instead, you got to go after the middle managers. The people who carry out a politican's agenda. In theory, another faction would be able to capitalize on the situation. While taking out some politicans would be a net beneft, the fallout would be terrible. A civil war in nuclear armed Russia? Another Middle East war?

Now when it comes to billionaries and the other parasites. Take those fuckers out. The World doesn't have to worry about a corporate power vaccuum taking everyone down like a civil war in a country.

If you write "person xyz dies in a month" you have plenty of time to write down thousands of names before the first one dies, and in all this time you can always make the reasonable assumption that it won't work anyways.

I think I have to disagree on this one. Whether or not you believed it would work is irrelevant. The malicious intent is what matters here. You happened to find a supernaturally accursed notebook titled "Death Note" and you decide to write someone's name in it? That already crosses the moral line imo, independent of any actual effects.

Counterarguments welcome.